Efterretning => Hinweis (German)
Hinweis => hint (English)
Efterretning => note (English)
Efterretn => the aftermath
Efterretn => Die Folgen (German)
Nach (German) => efter (Danish)
Nach (German) => after (English)
note => seddel (Danish)
Die Folgen (German) => The consequences (English)
Efterretn => the aftermath
Die Folgen (German) => Konsekvenserne (Danish)
bing.com/translate/
Intelligence Service (ET Efterretnings-Tjenesten)
____________________________________
▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀
Once upon a time ...
8:46
How to Start a Speech
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w82a1FT5o88
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w82a1FT5o88
Conor Neill
Published on Mar 11, 2012
“ The Romans did in these instances what all prudent princes ought to do, who have to regard not only present troubles, but also future ones, for which they must prepare with every energy, because, when foreseen, it is easy to remedy them; but if you wait until they approach, the medicine is no longer in time because the malady has become incurable; for it happens in this, as the physicians say it happens in hectic fever, that in the beginning of the malady it is easy to cure but difficult to detect, but in the course of time, not having been either detected or treated in the beginning, it becomes easy to detect but difficult to cure. Thus it happens in affairs of state, for when the evils that arise have been foreseen (which it is only given to a wise man to see), they can be quickly redressed, but when, through not having been foreseen, they have been permitted to grow in a way that every one can see them, there is no longer a remedy.”
— Niccolo Machiavelli, Chapter 3, The Prince, in a discussion of the foreign policy of the Roman Republic
*******************************
Roger Revelle
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Revelle
Al Gore became interested in global warming when he took a course at Harvard University with Professor Roger Revelle, one of the first scientists to measure carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
*******************************
In 1964, the National Academy of Sciences issued a study that recognized the possibility of “inadvertent weather modification” caused by the burning of fossil fuels.
In 1965, President Lyndon Johnson’s Science Advisory Committee warned him that by the year 2000, there would be 25 percent more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. In the words of the Committee, the continued use of fossil fuels “will modify the heat balance of the atmosphere to such an extent that marked changes in climate, not controllable through local or even national efforts, could occur.”
Later that year, President Johnson issued a special message to Congress. “This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale,” he said, “through a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.”
In the 1970s, the National Research Council issued two additional reports on global climate change. And in 1978, the director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Dr. Robert White, wrote that “industrial wastes, such as carbon dioxide released during the burning of fossil fuels, can have consequences for climate that pose a considerable threat to future societies.” Dr. White warned the economic and social impacts could be “ominous”.
By 1979, our most respected scientists had become even more certain about this threat. The National Research Council at the National Academy of Sciences issued this conclusion: “The close linkage between man’s welfare and the climate regime within which his society has evolved suggests that such climatic changes would have a profound impact on human society.”
http://www.stopglobalwarming.org/news/floods-fires-and-another-teachable-moment/
*******************************
'It’s nonlinearity - stupid!'
Nick Breeze | 3rd January 2019
Nick Breeze interviews professor John Schellnhuber, who set up the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in 1991 to study climate.
https://theecologist.org/2019/jan/03/its-nonlinearity-stupid
Nick Breeze (NB): Thinking back to the beginning of the Potsdam Institute, and where we are today, how do you feel society has responded to the threat of climate disruption?
John Schellnhuber (JS): It is actually paradoxical: society, in the beginning, was more attentive of climate change and global warming, than it is today. I recall very well, in 1988 I was a visiting professor at the University of California, and in the Spring of 1988 there was a famous Senate hearing in the US where Jim Hansen said, 'this is 99 percent due to anthropogenic global warming'.
At that time it made headlines all over the planet because it was a distant threat. It is a threat where you can play around a little bit. 'Wouldn’t it be terrible if it happened?' Today we are in the midst of global warming. You can see it everywhere, and because it is so overwhelming, people just try to push it out of their consciousness.
And this is the problem, actually. We have waited so long to tackle it that we now seem to be overwhelmed and we declare defeat, and this is the worse thing that can happen because still, we can, not solve the problem, but we can minimise it to something that we can still manage.
If we now find reasons to give up, when it will turn into an outright catastrophe, and now I know as a scientist based on the papers we have published in the last two or three years, that we really face the question of whether human civilisation can be sustained over the next century.
... ... ...
JS: Yeah, you have to identify a portfolio of options, you know, disruptive innovations, self-amplifying innovations. You cannot predict precisely. You need to look into whether there are high nonlinear potentials, whether it is in electric cars, construction for wood instead of concrete, instead of cement, and so on.
Then you have to bet… say you identify twenty horses, you then have to send all of them into the race, and maybe three of them will make it across the finishing line. But they will instigate the change you need.
The other thing which is very important, the conventional economist will want to be efficient but efficiency is the enemy of innovation. You have to strand assets, you have to waste capital, because you invest into the wrong things, because you cannot know beforehand. But you also invest in the right things.
So I would say that we somehow trapped in this efficiency thing, and we dig deeper and deeper. So we have to have the courage to squander money. To throw money at things that have potential.
It is venture-capital at a global scale we have to muster. We cannot efficiently get ourselves out of this predicament. So we have to save the world but we have to save it in a muddled way, in a chaotic way, and also in a costly way. That is the bottom line, if you want to do it in an optimal way, you will fail.
NB: A moment ago you said that ignoring climate change is the worst thing that could happen, but when news comes out that the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia, are denying the latest climate science, a lot of people get very angry and say what’s the point?! What would you say to them?
JS: Sure, I will very silently work behind the scenes to maybe influence that, through my friends in science and so on. Let’s see what happens. But you see, giving up is not an option. Why? Let me give you an example: I have a ten years old boy and let's assume he has an accident and the doctor says, 'okay, we might save his life if we do this type of surgery but there is only a five percent chance otherwise he will die!' Would you say, 'no, we don’t do it'? Of course, you will do it.
So this is the situation we have now. I think we have more than a five percent chance of succeeding but it is definitely less than 50 percent, in my view. But what is the option? If we have a final chance to save our culture and our civilisation, I am just compelled to do it.
Here, clearly for the planet, there is no alternative. We definitely have a chance which is above zero, as I said, definitely we have no chance whatsoever if we want to be optimal. Optimality is the completely wrong paradigm for the situation we are in!
This Author
Nick Breeze is a climate change journalist and interviewer posting also on envisionation.co.uk. He is also organises the Cambridge Climate Lecture Series (climateseries.com) where Professor Schellnhuber will be speaking on 21st February 2019. Follow Nick Breeze on Twitter at @NickGBreeze
source:
https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/papers
https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/148cb0_a1406e0143ac4c469196d3003bc1e687.pdf
New Report Suggests 'High Likelihood of Human Civilization Coming To an End' Starting in 2050 (vice.com) 250
Posted by msmash on Wednesday June 05, 2019 @01:21PM from the growing-concern dept.
https://news.slashdot.org/story/19/06/05/1554201/new-report-suggests-high-likelihood-of-human-civilization-coming-to-an-end-starting-in-2050
NOVEMBER 2007
The Age of Consequences:The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change
By Kurt M. Campbell, Jay Gulledge, J.R. McNeill, John Podesta, Peter Ogden, Leon Fuerth, R. James Woolsey, Alexander T.J. Lennon, Julianne Smith, Richard Weitz, and Derek Mix
https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/legacy_files/files/media/csis/pubs/071105_ageofconsequences.pdf
____________________________________
▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀
http://theageofconsequences.com/
https://www.documentary.org/project/age-consequences
"It is not possible to discuss the future of national and international security without addressing climate change... Food shortages, droughts, floods—all directly tied to climate change will be catalysts for conflict."- U.S. Air Force Gen. Donald Hoffman (ret)A profoundly altered planet; food shortages, water shortages, mass migrations, unrest, competition – war.
http://pbsinternational.org/programs/the-age-of-consequences/
The film delves into how water and food shortages, drought, extreme weather and sea-level rise function as ‘accelerants of instability’ and ‘catalysts for conflict’ in volatile regions of the world. The Age of Consequences interviews Pentagon insiders who make the compelling case that if we go on with business as usual, the consequences of climate change—waves of refugees, failed states, terrorism—will continue to grow in scale and frequency and lead to grave implications for peace and security in the 21st century.
https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-age-of-consequences
Release Date: January 27, 2017
Summary: The Age of Consequences investigates the impacts of climate change, resource scarcity, migration, and conflict through the lens of US national security and global stability. Whether a long-term vulnerability or sudden shock, the film unpacks how water and food shortages, extreme weather, drought, and sea-level rise function as accelerants of instability and catalysts for conflict. Left unchecked, these threats and risks will continue to grow in scale and frequency, with grave implications for peace and security in the 21st century.
Director: Jared P. Scott
Genre(s): War, Documentary, News
Rating: Not Rated
Runtime: 80 min
____________________________________
▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀
41:01
Age of Consequences The Center for Climate and Security
https://youtu.be/garGXNcK_m0?t=1418
https://youtu.be/garGXNcK_m0?t=1418
https://youtu.be/garGXNcK_m0?t=1498
https://youtu.be/garGXNcK_m0?t=1498
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=garGXNcK_m0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=garGXNcK_m0
The Center for Climate and Security
Published on Nov 7, 2016
The Center for Climate and Security, Sept 14, 2016: Cast members from the climate and security documentary, "The Age of Consequences," discuss the film and its lessons for the future. The panel was held at the first annual Climate and National Security Forum at the Reserve Officers Association in Washington, DC.
25:19
the question is, can we get that done fast enough, to beat the trends we're seeing in chemical composition of our own atmosphere, can we do it quickly enough, and that's where public policy steps in, where political will steps in, ...
1:01:04
The Age Of Consequences
https://youtu.be/NHVGxzEajrg?t=2909
https://youtu.be/NHVGxzEajrg?t=2909
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NHVGxzEajrg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NHVGxzEajrg
HooverInstitution
Published on Feb 27, 2017
The Hoover Institution hosted "The Age of Consequences" on Wednesday, February 22, 2017 from 5:15pm - 8:00pm EST.
https://youtu.be/NHVGxzEajrg?t=2911
48:31 I got add one thing about this having
48:33 studied the science for 30 years the one
48:36 of the least convenient realities and
48:38 global warming science is this thing
48:40 called commitment, the IPCC reports have
48:43 described this for many years that the
48:46 climate system has momentum and even if
48:49 we had a perfect climate mitigation
48:50 policy on emissions tomorrow the climate
48:54 system won't notice that for about two
48:56 generations in a meaningful way meaning
48:58 sea level raised rise patterns of
49:01 climate change are pretty much locked in
49:03 you're looking at the climate change
49:04 built that's already built and that's why
____________________________________
▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/supersurvivors/201707/why-the-five-stages-grief-are-wrong
Even if the stages aren’t exactly gospel, there are three important lessons to take from Kubler-Ross’ work, no matter what our unique grief process may be like.
Lesson 1: A Little Denial Is Natural
Lesson 2: Grief Can Shake Our Faith
Lesson 3: Grief Usually Leads to Acceptance
____________________________________
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Denmark intel helped US NSA to spy on European politicians
Cyber Security
May 31, 2021
3 min read
• Danish telecommunications hub.
• allowed the US National Security Agency (NSA) to tap into a primary internet and telecommunications hub in Denmark
• “The NSA is said to have accessed text messages and the phone conversations of a number of prominent individuals by tapping into Danish internet cables in co-operation with the FE.”
• allowed the NSA to obtain data using the telephone numbers of politicians as search parameters, according to DR.
• The NSA and the Danish intelligence signed a secret pact that allowed the cyberspies to eavesdrop on sensitive communications between 2012 and 2014
• to spy on communications passing through the Sandagergårdan hub in Dragor, near Copenhagen.
•••• ••• ••••
Danish Defense Intelligence Service (Danish: Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste, FE) allowed the US National Security Agency (NSA) to tap into a primary internet and telecommunications hub in Denmark, the operation allowed the US intelligence agency to spy on the communications of European politicians. According to BBC, the NSA allegedly gathered intelligence on officials from Germany, France, Sweden, and Norway.
•••• ••• ••••
Pierluigi Paganini
source:
https://cybersecurityworldconference.com/2021/05/31/denmark-intel-helped-us-nsa-to-spy-on-european-politicians/
____________________________________
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30.05.2021
Danish intelligence service helped NSA spy on EU politicians
Denmark helped the NSA spy on politicians
Danish intelligence service [Danish Defense Intelligence Service (FE)] helped NSA (US surveillance SIGINT spying agency) secretly intercepted private communication, on leading politicians in Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands and France, as well as Germany.
Danish Defense Intelligence Service (FE) => Forsvarets Efterretnings-tjeneste
Forsvarets Efterretnings tjeneste
Efterretnings => intelligence
Danish => dansk
Defense => forsvar
Intelligence => intelligens
Service => tjeneste
Efterretning => Hinweis (German)
Hinweis => hint (English)
Efterretning => note (English)
Efterretn => the aftermath
Efterretn => Die Folgen
Efterret => the after court
Efterret => Das Nachgericht
Efter => after
Efter => Nach
ret => Rechts (German) => right (English)
(Danish) Højre => Rechts (German) => right (English)
Nach (German) => efter (Danish)
Nach (German) => after (English)
note => seddel (Danish)
Die Folgen (German) => The consequences (English)
Efterretn => the aftermath
Die Folgen (German) => Konsekvenserne (Danish)
Intelligence Service (ET Efterretnings-Tjenesten)
____________________________________
▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀
Once upon a time ...
8:46
How to Start a Speech
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w82a1FT5o88
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w82a1FT5o88
Conor Neill
Published on Mar 11, 2012
“ The Romans did in these instances what all prudent princes ought to do, who have to regard not only present troubles, but also future ones, for which they must prepare with every energy, because, when foreseen, it is easy to remedy them; but if you wait until they approach, the medicine is no longer in time because the malady has become incurable; for it happens in this, as the physicians say it happens in hectic fever, that in the beginning of the malady it is easy to cure but difficult to detect, but in the course of time, not having been either detected or treated in the beginning, it becomes easy to detect but difficult to cure. Thus it happens in affairs of state, for when the evils that arise have been foreseen (which it is only given to a wise man to see), they can be quickly redressed, but when, through not having been foreseen, they have been permitted to grow in a way that every one can see them, there is no longer a remedy.”
— Niccolo Machiavelli, Chapter 3, The Prince, in a discussion of the foreign policy of the Roman Republic
*******************************
Roger Revelle
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Revelle
Al Gore became interested in global warming when he took a course at Harvard University with Professor Roger Revelle, one of the first scientists to measure carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
*******************************
In 1964, the National Academy of Sciences issued a study that recognized the possibility of “inadvertent weather modification” caused by the burning of fossil fuels.
In 1965, President Lyndon Johnson’s Science Advisory Committee warned him that by the year 2000, there would be 25 percent more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. In the words of the Committee, the continued use of fossil fuels “will modify the heat balance of the atmosphere to such an extent that marked changes in climate, not controllable through local or even national efforts, could occur.”
Later that year, President Johnson issued a special message to Congress. “This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale,” he said, “through a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.”
In the 1970s, the National Research Council issued two additional reports on global climate change. And in 1978, the director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Dr. Robert White, wrote that “industrial wastes, such as carbon dioxide released during the burning of fossil fuels, can have consequences for climate that pose a considerable threat to future societies.” Dr. White warned the economic and social impacts could be “ominous”.
By 1979, our most respected scientists had become even more certain about this threat. The National Research Council at the National Academy of Sciences issued this conclusion: “The close linkage between man’s welfare and the climate regime within which his society has evolved suggests that such climatic changes would have a profound impact on human society.”
http://www.stopglobalwarming.org/news/floods-fires-and-another-teachable-moment/
*******************************
'It’s nonlinearity - stupid!'
Nick Breeze | 3rd January 2019
Nick Breeze interviews professor John Schellnhuber, who set up the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in 1991 to study climate.
https://theecologist.org/2019/jan/03/its-nonlinearity-stupid
Nick Breeze (NB): Thinking back to the beginning of the Potsdam Institute, and where we are today, how do you feel society has responded to the threat of climate disruption?
John Schellnhuber (JS): It is actually paradoxical: society, in the beginning, was more attentive of climate change and global warming, than it is today. I recall very well, in 1988 I was a visiting professor at the University of California, and in the Spring of 1988 there was a famous Senate hearing in the US where Jim Hansen said, 'this is 99 percent due to anthropogenic global warming'.
At that time it made headlines all over the planet because it was a distant threat. It is a threat where you can play around a little bit. 'Wouldn’t it be terrible if it happened?' Today we are in the midst of global warming. You can see it everywhere, and because it is so overwhelming, people just try to push it out of their consciousness.
And this is the problem, actually. We have waited so long to tackle it that we now seem to be overwhelmed and we declare defeat, and this is the worse thing that can happen because still, we can, not solve the problem, but we can minimise it to something that we can still manage.
If we now find reasons to give up, when it will turn into an outright catastrophe, and now I know as a scientist based on the papers we have published in the last two or three years, that we really face the question of whether human civilisation can be sustained over the next century.
... ... ...
JS: Yeah, you have to identify a portfolio of options, you know, disruptive innovations, self-amplifying innovations. You cannot predict precisely. You need to look into whether there are high nonlinear potentials, whether it is in electric cars, construction for wood instead of concrete, instead of cement, and so on.
Then you have to bet… say you identify twenty horses, you then have to send all of them into the race, and maybe three of them will make it across the finishing line. But they will instigate the change you need.
The other thing which is very important, the conventional economist will want to be efficient but efficiency is the enemy of innovation. You have to strand assets, you have to waste capital, because you invest into the wrong things, because you cannot know beforehand. But you also invest in the right things.
So I would say that we somehow trapped in this efficiency thing, and we dig deeper and deeper. So we have to have the courage to squander money. To throw money at things that have potential.
It is venture-capital at a global scale we have to muster. We cannot efficiently get ourselves out of this predicament. So we have to save the world but we have to save it in a muddled way, in a chaotic way, and also in a costly way. That is the bottom line, if you want to do it in an optimal way, you will fail.
NB: A moment ago you said that ignoring climate change is the worst thing that could happen, but when news comes out that the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia, are denying the latest climate science, a lot of people get very angry and say what’s the point?! What would you say to them?
JS: Sure, I will very silently work behind the scenes to maybe influence that, through my friends in science and so on. Let’s see what happens. But you see, giving up is not an option. Why? Let me give you an example: I have a ten years old boy and let's assume he has an accident and the doctor says, 'okay, we might save his life if we do this type of surgery but there is only a five percent chance otherwise he will die!' Would you say, 'no, we don’t do it'? Of course, you will do it.
So this is the situation we have now. I think we have more than a five percent chance of succeeding but it is definitely less than 50 percent, in my view. But what is the option? If we have a final chance to save our culture and our civilisation, I am just compelled to do it.
Here, clearly for the planet, there is no alternative. We definitely have a chance which is above zero, as I said, definitely we have no chance whatsoever if we want to be optimal. Optimality is the completely wrong paradigm for the situation we are in!
This Author
Nick Breeze is a climate change journalist and interviewer posting also on envisionation.co.uk. He is also organises the Cambridge Climate Lecture Series (climateseries.com) where Professor Schellnhuber will be speaking on 21st February 2019. Follow Nick Breeze on Twitter at @NickGBreeze
source:
https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/papers
https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/148cb0_a1406e0143ac4c469196d3003bc1e687.pdf
New Report Suggests 'High Likelihood of Human Civilization Coming To an End' Starting in 2050 (vice.com) 250
Posted by msmash on Wednesday June 05, 2019 @01:21PM from the growing-concern dept.
https://news.slashdot.org/story/19/06/05/1554201/new-report-suggests-high-likelihood-of-human-civilization-coming-to-an-end-starting-in-2050
NOVEMBER 2007
The Age of Consequences:The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change
By Kurt M. Campbell, Jay Gulledge, J.R. McNeill, John Podesta, Peter Ogden, Leon Fuerth, R. James Woolsey, Alexander T.J. Lennon, Julianne Smith, Richard Weitz, and Derek Mix
https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/legacy_files/files/media/csis/pubs/071105_ageofconsequences.pdf
____________________________________
▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀
http://theageofconsequences.com/
https://www.documentary.org/project/age-consequences
"It is not possible to discuss the future of national and international security without addressing climate change... Food shortages, droughts, floods—all directly tied to climate change will be catalysts for conflict."- U.S. Air Force Gen. Donald Hoffman (ret)A profoundly altered planet; food shortages, water shortages, mass migrations, unrest, competition – war.
http://pbsinternational.org/programs/the-age-of-consequences/
The film delves into how water and food shortages, drought, extreme weather and sea-level rise function as ‘accelerants of instability’ and ‘catalysts for conflict’ in volatile regions of the world. The Age of Consequences interviews Pentagon insiders who make the compelling case that if we go on with business as usual, the consequences of climate change—waves of refugees, failed states, terrorism—will continue to grow in scale and frequency and lead to grave implications for peace and security in the 21st century.
https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-age-of-consequences
Release Date: January 27, 2017
Summary: The Age of Consequences investigates the impacts of climate change, resource scarcity, migration, and conflict through the lens of US national security and global stability. Whether a long-term vulnerability or sudden shock, the film unpacks how water and food shortages, extreme weather, drought, and sea-level rise function as accelerants of instability and catalysts for conflict. Left unchecked, these threats and risks will continue to grow in scale and frequency, with grave implications for peace and security in the 21st century.
Director: Jared P. Scott
Genre(s): War, Documentary, News
Rating: Not Rated
Runtime: 80 min
____________________________________
▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀
41:01
Age of Consequences The Center for Climate and Security
https://youtu.be/garGXNcK_m0?t=1418
https://youtu.be/garGXNcK_m0?t=1418
https://youtu.be/garGXNcK_m0?t=1498
https://youtu.be/garGXNcK_m0?t=1498
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=garGXNcK_m0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=garGXNcK_m0
The Center for Climate and Security
Published on Nov 7, 2016
The Center for Climate and Security, Sept 14, 2016: Cast members from the climate and security documentary, "The Age of Consequences," discuss the film and its lessons for the future. The panel was held at the first annual Climate and National Security Forum at the Reserve Officers Association in Washington, DC.
25:19
the question is, can we get that done fast enough, to beat the trends we're seeing in chemical composition of our own atmosphere, can we do it quickly enough, and that's where public policy steps in, where political will steps in, ...
1:01:04
The Age Of Consequences
https://youtu.be/NHVGxzEajrg?t=2909
https://youtu.be/NHVGxzEajrg?t=2909
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NHVGxzEajrg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NHVGxzEajrg
HooverInstitution
Published on Feb 27, 2017
The Hoover Institution hosted "The Age of Consequences" on Wednesday, February 22, 2017 from 5:15pm - 8:00pm EST.
https://youtu.be/NHVGxzEajrg?t=2911
48:31 I got add one thing about this having
48:33 studied the science for 30 years the one
48:36 of the least convenient realities and
48:38 global warming science is this thing
48:40 called commitment, the IPCC reports have
48:43 described this for many years that the
48:46 climate system has momentum and even if
48:49 we had a perfect climate mitigation
48:50 policy on emissions tomorrow the climate
48:54 system won't notice that for about two
48:56 generations in a meaningful way meaning
48:58 sea level raised rise patterns of
49:01 climate change are pretty much locked in
49:03 you're looking at the climate change
49:04 built that's already built and that's why
____________________________________
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https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/supersurvivors/201707/why-the-five-stages-grief-are-wrong
Even if the stages aren’t exactly gospel, there are three important lessons to take from Kubler-Ross’ work, no matter what our unique grief process may be like.
Lesson 1: A Little Denial Is Natural
Lesson 2: Grief Can Shake Our Faith
Lesson 3: Grief Usually Leads to Acceptance
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Denmark intel helped US NSA to spy on European politicians
Cyber Security
May 31, 2021
3 min read
• Danish telecommunications hub.
• allowed the US National Security Agency (NSA) to tap into a primary internet and telecommunications hub in Denmark
• “The NSA is said to have accessed text messages and the phone conversations of a number of prominent individuals by tapping into Danish internet cables in co-operation with the FE.”
• allowed the NSA to obtain data using the telephone numbers of politicians as search parameters, according to DR.
• The NSA and the Danish intelligence signed a secret pact that allowed the cyberspies to eavesdrop on sensitive communications between 2012 and 2014
• to spy on communications passing through the Sandagergårdan hub in Dragor, near Copenhagen.
•••• ••• ••••
Danish Defense Intelligence Service (Danish: Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste, FE) allowed the US National Security Agency (NSA) to tap into a primary internet and telecommunications hub in Denmark, the operation allowed the US intelligence agency to spy on the communications of European politicians. According to BBC, the NSA allegedly gathered intelligence on officials from Germany, France, Sweden, and Norway.
•••• ••• ••••
Pierluigi Paganini
source:
https://cybersecurityworldconference.com/2021/05/31/denmark-intel-helped-us-nsa-to-spy-on-european-politicians/
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30.05.2021
Danish intelligence service helped NSA spy on EU politicians
Denmark helped the NSA spy on politicians
Danish intelligence service [Danish Defense Intelligence Service (FE)] helped NSA (US surveillance SIGINT spying agency) secretly intercepted private communication, on leading politicians in Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands and France, as well as Germany.
Danish Defense Intelligence Service (FE) => Forsvarets Efterretnings-tjeneste
Forsvarets Efterretnings tjeneste
Efterretnings => intelligence
Danish => dansk
Defense => forsvar
Intelligence => intelligens
Service => tjeneste
Efterretning => Hinweis (German)
Hinweis => hint (English)
Efterretning => note (English)
Efterretn => the aftermath
Efterretn => Die Folgen
Efterret => the after court
Efterret => Das Nachgericht
Efter => after
Efter => Nach
ret => Rechts (German) => right (English)
(Danish) Højre => Rechts (German) => right (English)
Nach (German) => efter (Danish)
Nach (German) => after (English)
note => seddel (Danish)
Die Folgen (German) => The consequences (English)
Efterretn => the aftermath
Die Folgen (German) => Konsekvenserne (Danish)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) =>
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => Consequences (English)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => Gevolgen (Dutch)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => Consecuencias (Spanish)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => Conséquences (French)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => последствия (Russian)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => 后果 (Chinese simplified)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => 後果 (Chinese traditional)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => 後果 (Cantonese traditional)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => 結果 (Japanese)
Efterretn (Danish) =>
Efterretn (Danish) => the aftermath (English)
Efterretn (Danish) => De nasleep (Dutch)
Efterretn (Danish) => Las secuelas (Spanish)
Efterretn (Danish) => Les conséquences (French)
Efterretn (Danish) => Die Folgen (German)
Efterretn (Danish) => Последствия (Russian)
after (English) => после (Russian)
Efterretn (Danish) => 後果 (Chinese traditional)
Efterretn (Danish) => 後果 (Cantonese traditional)
Efterretn (Danish) => その余波 (Japanese)
その余波 (Japanese) =>
その余波 (Japanese) => 其後果 (Chinese traditional)
その余波 (Japanese) => 其後果 (Cantonese traditional)
その余波 (Japanese) => its aftermath (English)
その余波 (Japanese) => dens eftervirkninger (Danish)
その余波 (Japanese) => sen jälkimainingit (Finnish)
その余波 (Japanese) => ses conséquences (French)
その余波 (Japanese) => seine Nachwirkungen (German)
dens eftervirkninger (Danish) => its aftermath (English)
dens eftervirkninger (Danish) => seine Nachwirkungen (German)
其後果 (Cantonese traditiona) => Folgen (German)
其後果 (Cantonese traditiona) => Konsekvenser (Danish)
Efterretn (Danish) => De nasleep (Dutch)
De nasleep (Dutch) => Eftervirkningerne (Danish)
Eftervirkningerne (Danish) =>
Eftervirkningerne (Danish) => Folgen (German)
Eftervirkningerne (Danish) => séquelles (French)
Eftervirkningerne (Danish) => consecuencia (Spanish)
Eftervirkningerne (Danish) => conseguenze (Italian)
Eftervirkningerne (Danish) => συνέπεια (Greek)
Eftervirkningerne (Danish) => последствие (Russian)
Eftervirkningerne (Danish) => Aftermath (English)
séquelles (French) =>
séquelles (French) => اعقاب (Arabic)
عقاب (Arabic) => תוצאות (Hebrew)
اعقاب (Arabic) => efterdyning (Swedish)
efterdyning (Swedish) =>
efterdyning (Swedish) => jälkivaikutus (Finnish)
efterdyning (Swedish) => Eftervirkningerne (Danish)
efterdyning (Swedish) => nasleep (Dutch)
efterdyning (Swedish) => последствие (Russian)
efterdyning (Swedish) => aftermath (English)
efterdyning (Swedish) => ina dhiaidh (Irish)
efterdyning (Swedish) => adladd (Welsh)
adladd (Welsh) =>
adladd (Welsh) => hậu quả (Vietnamese)
adladd (Welsh) => séquelles (French)
adladd (Welsh) => հետեւանքները (Armenian)
adladd (Welsh) => sonrakı (Azerbaijani)
adladd (Welsh) => परिणाम (Hindi)
Gevolgen (Dutch) => Canlyniadau (Welsh)
Gevolgen (Dutch) =>
nasleep (Dutch) =>
Gevolgen (Dutch) => Canlyniadau (Welsh)
nasleep (Dutch) => adladd (Welsh)
Gevolgen (Dutch) => consequences (English)
nasleep (Dutch) => aftermath (English)
Gevolgen (Dutch) => Folgen (German)
nasleep (Dutch) => Folgen (German)
Gevolgen (Dutch) => Konsekvenser (Danish)
nasleep (Dutch) => Eftervirkningerne (Danish)
Gevolgen (Dutch) => efterräkning (SWedish)
nasleep (Dutch) => efterdyning (SWedish)
Gevolgen (Dutch) => seuraukset (Finnish)
nasleep (Dutch) => jälkivaikutus (Finnish)
Gevolgen (Dutch) => 結果 (Japanese)
nasleep (Dutch) => 余波 (Japanese)
Gevolgen (Dutch) => Conséquences (French)
nasleep (Dutch) => séquelles (French)
Gevolgen (Dutch) => Conseqüències (Catalan)
nasleep (Dutch) => Seqüeles (Catalan)
Canlyniadau (Welsh) => resultat (Swedish)
Canlyniadau (Welsh) => Niðurstöður (Icelandic)
Canlyniadau (Welsh) => Ergebnisse (German)
Ergebnisse (German) =>
Folgen (German) =>
Die Folgen (German) =>
seine Nachwirkungen (German) =>
Ergebnisse (German) => results (English)
Folgen (German) => follow (English)
Die Folgen (German) => The consequences (English)
seine Nachwirkungen (German) => its aftermath (English)
Ergebnisse (German) => 業績 (Japanese)
Folgen (German) => 従う (Japanese)
Die Folgen (German) => 結果 (Japanese)
seine Nachwirkungen (German) => その余波 (Japanese)
Ergebnisse (German) => Результаты (Russian)
Folgen (German) => следовать (Russian)
Die Folgen (German) => Последствия (Russian)
seine Nachwirkungen (German) => его последствия (Russian)
Ergebnisse (German) => 結果 (Chinese traditional)
Folgen (German) => 跟隨 (Chinese traditional)
Die Folgen (German) => 後果 (Chinese traditional)
seine Nachwirkungen (German) => 其後果 (Chinese traditional)
Ergebnisse (German) => risultati (Italian)
Folgen (German) => seguire (Italian)
Die Folgen (German) => Le conseguenze (Italian)
seine Nachwirkungen (German) => le sue conseguenze (Italian)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => Consequences (English)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => Gevolgen (Dutch)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => Consecuencias (Spanish)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => Conséquences (French)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => последствия (Russian)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => 后果 (Chinese simplified)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => 後果 (Chinese traditional)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => 後果 (Cantonese traditional)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => 結果 (Japanese)
Efterretn (Danish) =>
Efterretn (Danish) => the aftermath (English)
Efterretn (Danish) => De nasleep (Dutch)
Efterretn (Danish) => Las secuelas (Spanish)
Efterretn (Danish) => Les conséquences (French)
Efterretn (Danish) => Die Folgen (German)
Efterretn (Danish) => Последствия (Russian)
after (English) => после (Russian)
Efterretn (Danish) => 後果 (Chinese traditional)
Efterretn (Danish) => 後果 (Cantonese traditional)
Efterretn (Danish) => その余波 (Japanese)
その余波 (Japanese) =>
その余波 (Japanese) => 其後果 (Chinese traditional)
その余波 (Japanese) => 其後果 (Cantonese traditional)
その余波 (Japanese) => its aftermath (English)
その余波 (Japanese) => dens eftervirkninger (Danish)
その余波 (Japanese) => sen jälkimainingit (Finnish)
その余波 (Japanese) => ses conséquences (French)
その余波 (Japanese) => seine Nachwirkungen (German)
dens eftervirkninger (Danish) => its aftermath (English)
dens eftervirkninger (Danish) => seine Nachwirkungen (German)
其後果 (Cantonese traditiona) => Folgen (German)
其後果 (Cantonese traditiona) => Konsekvenser (Danish)
Efterretn (Danish) => De nasleep (Dutch)
De nasleep (Dutch) => Eftervirkningerne (Danish)
Eftervirkningerne (Danish) =>
Eftervirkningerne (Danish) => Folgen (German)
Eftervirkningerne (Danish) => séquelles (French)
Eftervirkningerne (Danish) => consecuencia (Spanish)
Eftervirkningerne (Danish) => conseguenze (Italian)
Eftervirkningerne (Danish) => συνέπεια (Greek)
Eftervirkningerne (Danish) => последствие (Russian)
Eftervirkningerne (Danish) => Aftermath (English)
séquelles (French) =>
séquelles (French) => اعقاب (Arabic)
عقاب (Arabic) => תוצאות (Hebrew)
اعقاب (Arabic) => efterdyning (Swedish)
efterdyning (Swedish) =>
efterdyning (Swedish) => jälkivaikutus (Finnish)
efterdyning (Swedish) => Eftervirkningerne (Danish)
efterdyning (Swedish) => nasleep (Dutch)
efterdyning (Swedish) => последствие (Russian)
efterdyning (Swedish) => aftermath (English)
efterdyning (Swedish) => ina dhiaidh (Irish)
efterdyning (Swedish) => adladd (Welsh)
adladd (Welsh) =>
adladd (Welsh) => hậu quả (Vietnamese)
adladd (Welsh) => séquelles (French)
adladd (Welsh) => հետեւանքները (Armenian)
adladd (Welsh) => sonrakı (Azerbaijani)
adladd (Welsh) => परिणाम (Hindi)
Gevolgen (Dutch) => Canlyniadau (Welsh)
Gevolgen (Dutch) =>
nasleep (Dutch) =>
Gevolgen (Dutch) => Canlyniadau (Welsh)
nasleep (Dutch) => adladd (Welsh)
Gevolgen (Dutch) => consequences (English)
nasleep (Dutch) => aftermath (English)
Gevolgen (Dutch) => Folgen (German)
nasleep (Dutch) => Folgen (German)
Gevolgen (Dutch) => Konsekvenser (Danish)
nasleep (Dutch) => Eftervirkningerne (Danish)
Gevolgen (Dutch) => efterräkning (SWedish)
nasleep (Dutch) => efterdyning (SWedish)
Gevolgen (Dutch) => seuraukset (Finnish)
nasleep (Dutch) => jälkivaikutus (Finnish)
Gevolgen (Dutch) => 結果 (Japanese)
nasleep (Dutch) => 余波 (Japanese)
Gevolgen (Dutch) => Conséquences (French)
nasleep (Dutch) => séquelles (French)
Gevolgen (Dutch) => Conseqüències (Catalan)
nasleep (Dutch) => Seqüeles (Catalan)
Canlyniadau (Welsh) => resultat (Swedish)
Canlyniadau (Welsh) => Niðurstöður (Icelandic)
Canlyniadau (Welsh) => Ergebnisse (German)
Ergebnisse (German) =>
Folgen (German) =>
Die Folgen (German) =>
seine Nachwirkungen (German) =>
Ergebnisse (German) => results (English)
Folgen (German) => follow (English)
Die Folgen (German) => The consequences (English)
seine Nachwirkungen (German) => its aftermath (English)
Ergebnisse (German) => 業績 (Japanese)
Folgen (German) => 従う (Japanese)
Die Folgen (German) => 結果 (Japanese)
seine Nachwirkungen (German) => その余波 (Japanese)
Ergebnisse (German) => Результаты (Russian)
Folgen (German) => следовать (Russian)
Die Folgen (German) => Последствия (Russian)
seine Nachwirkungen (German) => его последствия (Russian)
Ergebnisse (German) => 結果 (Chinese traditional)
Folgen (German) => 跟隨 (Chinese traditional)
Die Folgen (German) => 後果 (Chinese traditional)
seine Nachwirkungen (German) => 其後果 (Chinese traditional)
Ergebnisse (German) => risultati (Italian)
Folgen (German) => seguire (Italian)
Die Folgen (German) => Le conseguenze (Italian)
seine Nachwirkungen (German) => le sue conseguenze (Italian)
bing.com/translate/
Intelligence Service (ET Efterretnings-Tjenesten)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesopotamian_Arabic
Secret service sources passed on the information to a team including Danish, Swedish and Norwegian broadcasters (DR, SVT and NRK respectively), as well as the French newspaper Le Monde, German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung and German public broadcasters NDR and WDR.
The Danish government knew of the involvement of their country's secret service in the NSA scandal by 2015 at the latest.
They began to collect information on the FE's cooperation with the NSA between 2012 and 2014 in the secret Dunhammer report following the disclosures by the former NSA employee and whistleblower Edward Snowden, NDR reported.
The information they gathered made it clear that the FE had helped the NSA to spy on leading politicians in Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands and France, as well as Germany.
Danish intelligence also helped the US agency to spy on the Danish foreign and finance ministries as well as a Danish weapons manufacturer. The FE also cooperated with the NSA on spying operations against the US government itself.
Upon discovering exactly how far the cooperation between the two countries' intelligence services went, the Danish government forced the entire leadership of the FE to step down in 2020.
Patrick Sensburg, who led the German parliamentary committee to investigate the NSA spying scandal, was not surprised by the news. For the lawmaker from Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU), it is important to understand what drives secret services.
"It's not about friendships. It's not about moral-ethical aspirations. It's about pursuing interests," he told NDR.
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30.05.2021
Danish intelligence service helped NSA spy on EU politicians
Danish intelligence service [Danish Defense Intelligence Service (FE)] helped NSA (US surveillance agency) spy on leading politicians in Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands and France, as well as Germany
Danish secret service helped US spy on Germany's Angela Merkel: report | DW |
30.05.2021
Deutsche Welle (www.dw.com)
Denmark's secret service helped the US National Security Agency (NSA) spy on EU leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, a European media investigation published on Sunday revealed.
► https://www.dw.com/en/german-prosecutors-close-case-on-nsa-spying-scandal/a-40814387
The disclosure that the US had been spying on its allies first came to light in 2013, but it is only now that journalists have gained access to reports detailing the support given to the NSA by the Danish Defense Intelligence Service (FE).
The report showed that Germany's close ally and neighbor cooperated with US spying operations that targeted the chancellor and president.
The then chancellor candidate for the German center-left socialist party (SPD), Peer Steinbrück, was also a target, the new report disclosed.
Secret service sources passed on the information to a team including Danish, Swedish and Norwegian broadcasters (DR, SVT and NRK respectively), as well as the French newspaper Le Monde, German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung and German public broadcasters NDR and WDR.
How did German officials react?
Steinbrück spoke to the German members of the research team upon finding out about the spying operations against him.
"Politically, I consider this a scandal," he said. While he accepted that western states require functioning intelligence services, the fact that Danish authorities had been spying on their partners showed "that they are rather doing things on their own."
Neither Merkel nor Steinmeier had "any knowledge" of the spying operations carried out by leading Danish government officials. A spokesperson said that the chancellor had been informed of the revelations.
How was the Danish government involved?
The Danish government knew of the involvement of their country's secret service in the NSA scandal by 2015 at the latest.
They began to collect information on the FE's cooperation with the NSA between 2012 and 2014 in the secret Dunhammer report following the disclosures by the former NSA employee and whistleblower Edward Snowden, NDR reported.
The information they gathered made it clear that the FE had helped the NSA to spy on leading politicians in Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands and France, as well as Germany.
Danish intelligence also helped the US agency to spy on the Danish foreign and finance ministries as well as a Danish weapons manufacturer. The FE also cooperated with the NSA on spying operations against the US government itself.
Upon discovering exactly how far the cooperation between the two countries' intelligence services went, the Danish government forced the entire leadership of the FE to step down in 2020.
What drove Danish spies to help the NSA?
A Danish expert in secret service operations Thomas Wegener Friis believes that the FE was faced with a choice about which global partners to work more closely with.
"They made a clear decision to work with the Americans and against their European partners," he told NDR.
Patrick Sensburg, who led the German parliamentary committee to investigate the NSA spying scandal, was not surprised by the news. For the lawmaker from Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU), it is important to understand what drives secret services.
"It's not about friendships. It's not about moral-ethical aspirations. It's about pursuing interests," he told NDR.
The NSA, FE and Danish defense ministry did not respond to requests for comment on the research, however, a general statement from the defense ministry said that "a systematic bugging of close allies is unacceptable."
source:
https://www.textise.net/showText.aspx?strURL=https://www.dw.com/en/danish-secret-service-helped-us-spy-on-germanys-angela-merkel-report/a-57721901
https://www.dw.com/en/danish-secret-service-helped-us-spy-on-germanys-angela-merkel-report/a-57721901
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([ the following events are unlikely, we are imagining the unthinkable ])
([ what-if scenario ])
A Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security
October 2003
by Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall
page count: 22 pages
► https://eesc.columbia.edu/courses/v1003/readings/Pentagon.pdf
► https://www.iatp.org/documents/abrupt-climate-change-scenario-and-its-implications-united-states-national-security
► https://www.iatp.org/sites/default/files/An_Abrupt_Climate_Change_Scenario_and_Its_Impl.pdf
Imagining the Unthinkable
The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable – to push the boundaries of current research on climate change so we may better understand the potential implications on United States national security.
We have interviewed leading climate change scientists, conducted additional research, and reviewed several iterations of the scenario with these experts. The scientists support thisproject, but caution that the scenario depicted is extreme in two fundamental ways. First, they suggest the occurrences we outline would most likely happen in a few regions, rather than on globally. Second, they say the magnitude of the event may be considerably smaller.
We have created a climate change scenario that although not the most likely, is plausible, and would challenge United States national security in ways that should be considered immediately.
Executive Summary
There is substantial evidence to indicate that significant global warming will occur during the 21st century. Because changes have been gradual so far, and are projected to be similarly gradual in the future, the effects of global warming have the potential to be manageable for most nations. Recent research, however, suggests that there is a possibility that this gradual global warming could lead to a relatively abrupt slowing of the ocean’s thermohaline conveyor, which could lead to harsher winter weather conditions, sharply reduced soil moisture, and more intense winds in certain regions that currently provide a significant fraction of the world’s food production. With inadequate preparation, the result could be a significant drop in the human carrying capacity of the Earth’s environment.
The research suggests that once temperature rises above some threshold, adverse weather conditions could develop relatively abruptly, with persistent changes in the atmospheric circulation causing drops in some regions of 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit in a single decade. Paleoclimatic evidence suggests that altered climatic patterns could last for as much as a century, as they did when the ocean conveyor collapsed 8,200 years ago, or, at the extreme, could last as long as 1,000 years as they did during the Younger Dryas, which began about 12,700 years ago.
In this report, as an alternative to the scenarios of gradual climatic warming that are so common, we outline an abrupt climate change scenario patterned after the 100-year event that occurred about 8,200 years ago. This abrupt change scenario is characterized by the following conditions:
• Annual average temperatures drop by up to 5 degrees Fahrenheit over Asiaand North America and 6 degrees Fahrenheit in northern Europe
• Annual average temperatures increase by up to 4 degrees Fahrenheit in keyareas throughout Australia, South America, and southern Africa.
• Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and inthe water resource regions for major population centers in Europe and easternNorth America.
• Winter storms and winds intensify, amplifying the impacts of the changes. Western Europe and the North Pacific experience enhanced winds.
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The day before yesterday: when abrupt climate change came to the Chesapeake Bay
Author: Michael W. Fincham
March 7, 2014
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/features/day-yesterday-when-abrupt-climate-change-came-chesapeake-bay
IN OCTOBER 2003, A LITTLE-KNOWN THINK TANK in the Department of Defense quietly released a report warning that climate change could happen suddenly—so suddenly it could pose a major threat to our country's national security.
The title of the Pentagon report was a mouthful: An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for United States National Security. Those implications included rising seas, flooded coastal cities, at least one drowned country, droughts, food shortages, failed states, and fortress states. The report was never designed as a scientific prediction. It was a speculative effort by defense strategists to dramatize all the security threats the country would face if the climate suddenly shifted.
Why was the Pentagon suddenly worried about abrupt climate change? Because there was new evidence it had happened before.
... ... ....
The Pentagon report on “An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario” was commissioned by Andrew Marshall, long-time director of a think tank called the Office of Net Assessment. Press reports usually called Marshall the “Yoda” of the Pentagon, and Foreign Policy magazine in 2012 called him one of the world’s top global thinkers. Now 92 years old, Marshall is still on the job, and a big part of his job is still the same: thinking about the unthinkable and reporting his thoughts directly to his boss, the Secretary of Defense. In 2003, one of his thoughts was that the country should now take seriously the possibility of abrupt climate change.
He had this thought because he knew that many scientists were finding new evidence it could happen. In 1997, Richard B. Alley, a Penn State geologist, had found evidence in Greenland ice cores that a sudden and mysterious cooling hit the Northern Hemisphere thousands of years ago during an era of global warming. In 2002, the National Research Council had released a study warning that climate change could occur quickly, within decades, especially if something happened to slow down or shut down the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, a branch of the ocean conveyor belt that, among other missions, carries heat from the tropics up into the North Atlantic. After Marshall read the scientific study, he commissioned his own study and hired Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall, two self-described futurists, to work out a geopolitical scenario.
Hollywood producers were also skimming those science reports, skipping any inconvenient details about the speed of climate change. In 2004 they created their own vivid version of abrupt climate change by releasing a 125-million-dollar movie, The Day After Tomorrow. For geologists, abrupt change usually took several decades, for filmmakers it only took several days. Unleashing the power of digital special effects, they showed New York City succumbing to a new ice age in the space of three weeks, a climate change so abrupt and so devastating it sent the U.S. government decamping to Mexico.
What was the scientific evidence for “abrupt climate change” in the past? The Pentagon modeled its nightmare scenario on a specific episode that struck the planet some 8,200 years ago. The earth was well into our current interglacial era, an age of warming oceans and melting ice sheets, when a major cooldown suddenly arrived. It’s called the 8.2 kiloyear event–or the "8.2 ka" event in scientific shorthand. Evidence for the event came from those ice cores in Greenland: these early estimates suggested that temperatures dropped between 7 and 14 degrees Fahrenheit in less than 20 years. And that drop altered ocean currents, atmospheric circulation, and weather patterns around most of the planet. In geological time scales, that's abrupt.
... ... ....
*The Pentagon report’s thought-provoking speculations were based in science, but were still just that: speculations. And some speculations are less plausible than others. According to paleoclimatologist Carrie Morrill, reviewer for this article, the temperature drops and chillier winters that occurred in parts of the Northern Hemisphere during the AMOC slowdown 8,200 years ago are unlikely to be repeated in a modern-day scenario. With global warming due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, what’s more plausible is less warming in affected areas—but not actual cooling.
https://monthlyreview.org/2004/05/01/the-pentagon-and-climate-change/
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https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/emissions-levels-determine-temperature-rises.html
Metadata
Figure: Emissions Levels Determine Temperature Rises Caption: Different amounts of heat-trapping gases released into the atmosphere by human activities produce different projected increases in Earth’s temperature. In the figure, each line represents a central estimate of global average temperature rise (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for a specific emissions pathway. Shading indicates the range (5th to 95th percentile) of results from a suite of climate models. Projections in 2099 for additional emissions pathways are indicated by the bars to the right of each panel. In all cases, temperatures are expected to rise, although the difference between lower and higher emissions pathways is substantial. (Left) The panel shows the two main scenarios (SRES – Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) used in this report: A2 assumes continued increases in emissions throughout this century, and B1 assumes much slower increases in emissions beginning now and significant emissions reductions beginning around 2050, though not due explicitly to climate change policies. (Right) The panel shows newer analyses, which are results from the most recent generation of climate models (CMIP5) using the most recent emissions pathways (RCPs – Representative Concentration Pathways). Some of these new projections explicitly consider climate policies that would result in emissions reductions, which the SRES set did not.1,2 The newest set includes both lower and higher pathways than did the previous set. The lowest emissions pathway shown here, RCP 2.6, assumes immediate and rapid reductions in emissions and would result in about 2.5°F (1.39°C) of warming in this century. The highest pathway, RCP 8.5, roughly similar to a continuation of the current path of global emissions increases, is projected to lead to more than 8°F (4.45°C) warming by 2100, with a high-end possibility of more than 11°F (6.11°C). (Data from CMIP3, CMIP5, and NOAA NCDC).
source:
10:16
PBS is an American public broadcast service. Wikipedia
Outlining the urgent risks of global warming for U.S.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhatOlh1v5k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhatOlh1v5k
PBS NewsHour
Published on May 6, 2014
In its most comprehensive report on climate change yet, the White House forecasts the likely negative effects facing each of the eight regions in the U.S., from drought in the Southwest, to stronger storms in the Northeast. The administration is expected to cite the warnings when it lays out new regulations this summer. John Holdren, science advisor to the president, talks to Gwen Ifill.
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Climate Change and National Security
http://lasp.colorado.edu/~randall/4800/lectures/20160328.pdf
Three case studies:
■ 2003: An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for United States National Security (Pentagon)
■ 2007: Oil Shockwave Simulation (DoD)
■ 2015: Climate Refugees in Syria (Scientific American)
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Climate Intervention Reports Release Briefing Webcast
Watch the briefing given at the release of two National Research Council reports, Climate Intervention: Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration, and Climate Intervention: Reflecting Sunlight to Cool Earth.
http://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/videos-multimedia/climate-intervention-reports-release-briefing-webcast/
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Secret service sources passed on the information to a team including Danish, Swedish and Norwegian broadcasters (DR, SVT and NRK respectively), as well as the French newspaper Le Monde, German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung and German public broadcasters NDR and WDR.
The Danish government knew of the involvement of their country's secret service in the NSA scandal by 2015 at the latest.
They began to collect information on the FE's cooperation with the NSA between 2012 and 2014 in the secret Dunhammer report following the disclosures by the former NSA employee and whistleblower Edward Snowden, NDR reported.
The information they gathered made it clear that the FE had helped the NSA to spy on leading politicians in Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands and France, as well as Germany.
Danish intelligence also helped the US agency to spy on the Danish foreign and finance ministries as well as a Danish weapons manufacturer. The FE also cooperated with the NSA on spying operations against the US government itself.
Upon discovering exactly how far the cooperation between the two countries' intelligence services went, the Danish government forced the entire leadership of the FE to step down in 2020.
Patrick Sensburg, who led the German parliamentary committee to investigate the NSA spying scandal, was not surprised by the news. For the lawmaker from Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU), it is important to understand what drives secret services.
"It's not about friendships. It's not about moral-ethical aspirations. It's about pursuing interests," he told NDR.
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30.05.2021
Danish intelligence service helped NSA spy on EU politicians
Danish intelligence service [Danish Defense Intelligence Service (FE)] helped NSA (US surveillance agency) spy on leading politicians in Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands and France, as well as Germany
Danish secret service helped US spy on Germany's Angela Merkel: report | DW |
30.05.2021
Deutsche Welle (www.dw.com)
Denmark's secret service helped the US National Security Agency (NSA) spy on EU leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, a European media investigation published on Sunday revealed.
► https://www.dw.com/en/german-prosecutors-close-case-on-nsa-spying-scandal/a-40814387
The disclosure that the US had been spying on its allies first came to light in 2013, but it is only now that journalists have gained access to reports detailing the support given to the NSA by the Danish Defense Intelligence Service (FE).
The report showed that Germany's close ally and neighbor cooperated with US spying operations that targeted the chancellor and president.
The then chancellor candidate for the German center-left socialist party (SPD), Peer Steinbrück, was also a target, the new report disclosed.
Secret service sources passed on the information to a team including Danish, Swedish and Norwegian broadcasters (DR, SVT and NRK respectively), as well as the French newspaper Le Monde, German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung and German public broadcasters NDR and WDR.
How did German officials react?
Steinbrück spoke to the German members of the research team upon finding out about the spying operations against him.
"Politically, I consider this a scandal," he said. While he accepted that western states require functioning intelligence services, the fact that Danish authorities had been spying on their partners showed "that they are rather doing things on their own."
Neither Merkel nor Steinmeier had "any knowledge" of the spying operations carried out by leading Danish government officials. A spokesperson said that the chancellor had been informed of the revelations.
How was the Danish government involved?
The Danish government knew of the involvement of their country's secret service in the NSA scandal by 2015 at the latest.
They began to collect information on the FE's cooperation with the NSA between 2012 and 2014 in the secret Dunhammer report following the disclosures by the former NSA employee and whistleblower Edward Snowden, NDR reported.
The information they gathered made it clear that the FE had helped the NSA to spy on leading politicians in Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands and France, as well as Germany.
Danish intelligence also helped the US agency to spy on the Danish foreign and finance ministries as well as a Danish weapons manufacturer. The FE also cooperated with the NSA on spying operations against the US government itself.
Upon discovering exactly how far the cooperation between the two countries' intelligence services went, the Danish government forced the entire leadership of the FE to step down in 2020.
What drove Danish spies to help the NSA?
A Danish expert in secret service operations Thomas Wegener Friis believes that the FE was faced with a choice about which global partners to work more closely with.
"They made a clear decision to work with the Americans and against their European partners," he told NDR.
Patrick Sensburg, who led the German parliamentary committee to investigate the NSA spying scandal, was not surprised by the news. For the lawmaker from Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU), it is important to understand what drives secret services.
"It's not about friendships. It's not about moral-ethical aspirations. It's about pursuing interests," he told NDR.
The NSA, FE and Danish defense ministry did not respond to requests for comment on the research, however, a general statement from the defense ministry said that "a systematic bugging of close allies is unacceptable."
source:
https://www.textise.net/showText.aspx?strURL=https://www.dw.com/en/danish-secret-service-helped-us-spy-on-germanys-angela-merkel-report/a-57721901
https://www.dw.com/en/danish-secret-service-helped-us-spy-on-germanys-angela-merkel-report/a-57721901
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([ the following events are unlikely, we are imagining the unthinkable ])
([ what-if scenario ])
A Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security
October 2003
by Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall
page count: 22 pages
► https://eesc.columbia.edu/courses/v1003/readings/Pentagon.pdf
► https://www.iatp.org/documents/abrupt-climate-change-scenario-and-its-implications-united-states-national-security
► https://www.iatp.org/sites/default/files/An_Abrupt_Climate_Change_Scenario_and_Its_Impl.pdf
Imagining the Unthinkable
The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable – to push the boundaries of current research on climate change so we may better understand the potential implications on United States national security.
We have interviewed leading climate change scientists, conducted additional research, and reviewed several iterations of the scenario with these experts. The scientists support thisproject, but caution that the scenario depicted is extreme in two fundamental ways. First, they suggest the occurrences we outline would most likely happen in a few regions, rather than on globally. Second, they say the magnitude of the event may be considerably smaller.
We have created a climate change scenario that although not the most likely, is plausible, and would challenge United States national security in ways that should be considered immediately.
Executive Summary
There is substantial evidence to indicate that significant global warming will occur during the 21st century. Because changes have been gradual so far, and are projected to be similarly gradual in the future, the effects of global warming have the potential to be manageable for most nations. Recent research, however, suggests that there is a possibility that this gradual global warming could lead to a relatively abrupt slowing of the ocean’s thermohaline conveyor, which could lead to harsher winter weather conditions, sharply reduced soil moisture, and more intense winds in certain regions that currently provide a significant fraction of the world’s food production. With inadequate preparation, the result could be a significant drop in the human carrying capacity of the Earth’s environment.
The research suggests that once temperature rises above some threshold, adverse weather conditions could develop relatively abruptly, with persistent changes in the atmospheric circulation causing drops in some regions of 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit in a single decade. Paleoclimatic evidence suggests that altered climatic patterns could last for as much as a century, as they did when the ocean conveyor collapsed 8,200 years ago, or, at the extreme, could last as long as 1,000 years as they did during the Younger Dryas, which began about 12,700 years ago.
In this report, as an alternative to the scenarios of gradual climatic warming that are so common, we outline an abrupt climate change scenario patterned after the 100-year event that occurred about 8,200 years ago. This abrupt change scenario is characterized by the following conditions:
• Annual average temperatures drop by up to 5 degrees Fahrenheit over Asiaand North America and 6 degrees Fahrenheit in northern Europe
• Annual average temperatures increase by up to 4 degrees Fahrenheit in keyareas throughout Australia, South America, and southern Africa.
• Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and inthe water resource regions for major population centers in Europe and easternNorth America.
• Winter storms and winds intensify, amplifying the impacts of the changes. Western Europe and the North Pacific experience enhanced winds.
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The day before yesterday: when abrupt climate change came to the Chesapeake Bay
Author: Michael W. Fincham
March 7, 2014
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/features/day-yesterday-when-abrupt-climate-change-came-chesapeake-bay
IN OCTOBER 2003, A LITTLE-KNOWN THINK TANK in the Department of Defense quietly released a report warning that climate change could happen suddenly—so suddenly it could pose a major threat to our country's national security.
The title of the Pentagon report was a mouthful: An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for United States National Security. Those implications included rising seas, flooded coastal cities, at least one drowned country, droughts, food shortages, failed states, and fortress states. The report was never designed as a scientific prediction. It was a speculative effort by defense strategists to dramatize all the security threats the country would face if the climate suddenly shifted.
Why was the Pentagon suddenly worried about abrupt climate change? Because there was new evidence it had happened before.
... ... ....
The Pentagon report on “An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario” was commissioned by Andrew Marshall, long-time director of a think tank called the Office of Net Assessment. Press reports usually called Marshall the “Yoda” of the Pentagon, and Foreign Policy magazine in 2012 called him one of the world’s top global thinkers. Now 92 years old, Marshall is still on the job, and a big part of his job is still the same: thinking about the unthinkable and reporting his thoughts directly to his boss, the Secretary of Defense. In 2003, one of his thoughts was that the country should now take seriously the possibility of abrupt climate change.
He had this thought because he knew that many scientists were finding new evidence it could happen. In 1997, Richard B. Alley, a Penn State geologist, had found evidence in Greenland ice cores that a sudden and mysterious cooling hit the Northern Hemisphere thousands of years ago during an era of global warming. In 2002, the National Research Council had released a study warning that climate change could occur quickly, within decades, especially if something happened to slow down or shut down the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, a branch of the ocean conveyor belt that, among other missions, carries heat from the tropics up into the North Atlantic. After Marshall read the scientific study, he commissioned his own study and hired Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall, two self-described futurists, to work out a geopolitical scenario.
Hollywood producers were also skimming those science reports, skipping any inconvenient details about the speed of climate change. In 2004 they created their own vivid version of abrupt climate change by releasing a 125-million-dollar movie, The Day After Tomorrow. For geologists, abrupt change usually took several decades, for filmmakers it only took several days. Unleashing the power of digital special effects, they showed New York City succumbing to a new ice age in the space of three weeks, a climate change so abrupt and so devastating it sent the U.S. government decamping to Mexico.
What was the scientific evidence for “abrupt climate change” in the past? The Pentagon modeled its nightmare scenario on a specific episode that struck the planet some 8,200 years ago. The earth was well into our current interglacial era, an age of warming oceans and melting ice sheets, when a major cooldown suddenly arrived. It’s called the 8.2 kiloyear event–or the "8.2 ka" event in scientific shorthand. Evidence for the event came from those ice cores in Greenland: these early estimates suggested that temperatures dropped between 7 and 14 degrees Fahrenheit in less than 20 years. And that drop altered ocean currents, atmospheric circulation, and weather patterns around most of the planet. In geological time scales, that's abrupt.
... ... ....
*The Pentagon report’s thought-provoking speculations were based in science, but were still just that: speculations. And some speculations are less plausible than others. According to paleoclimatologist Carrie Morrill, reviewer for this article, the temperature drops and chillier winters that occurred in parts of the Northern Hemisphere during the AMOC slowdown 8,200 years ago are unlikely to be repeated in a modern-day scenario. With global warming due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, what’s more plausible is less warming in affected areas—but not actual cooling.
https://monthlyreview.org/2004/05/01/the-pentagon-and-climate-change/
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https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/emissions-levels-determine-temperature-rises.html
Metadata
Figure: Emissions Levels Determine Temperature Rises Caption: Different amounts of heat-trapping gases released into the atmosphere by human activities produce different projected increases in Earth’s temperature. In the figure, each line represents a central estimate of global average temperature rise (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for a specific emissions pathway. Shading indicates the range (5th to 95th percentile) of results from a suite of climate models. Projections in 2099 for additional emissions pathways are indicated by the bars to the right of each panel. In all cases, temperatures are expected to rise, although the difference between lower and higher emissions pathways is substantial. (Left) The panel shows the two main scenarios (SRES – Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) used in this report: A2 assumes continued increases in emissions throughout this century, and B1 assumes much slower increases in emissions beginning now and significant emissions reductions beginning around 2050, though not due explicitly to climate change policies. (Right) The panel shows newer analyses, which are results from the most recent generation of climate models (CMIP5) using the most recent emissions pathways (RCPs – Representative Concentration Pathways). Some of these new projections explicitly consider climate policies that would result in emissions reductions, which the SRES set did not.1,2 The newest set includes both lower and higher pathways than did the previous set. The lowest emissions pathway shown here, RCP 2.6, assumes immediate and rapid reductions in emissions and would result in about 2.5°F (1.39°C) of warming in this century. The highest pathway, RCP 8.5, roughly similar to a continuation of the current path of global emissions increases, is projected to lead to more than 8°F (4.45°C) warming by 2100, with a high-end possibility of more than 11°F (6.11°C). (Data from CMIP3, CMIP5, and NOAA NCDC).
source:
10:16
PBS is an American public broadcast service. Wikipedia
Outlining the urgent risks of global warming for U.S.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhatOlh1v5k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhatOlh1v5k
PBS NewsHour
Published on May 6, 2014
In its most comprehensive report on climate change yet, the White House forecasts the likely negative effects facing each of the eight regions in the U.S., from drought in the Southwest, to stronger storms in the Northeast. The administration is expected to cite the warnings when it lays out new regulations this summer. John Holdren, science advisor to the president, talks to Gwen Ifill.
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Climate Change and National Security
http://lasp.colorado.edu/~randall/4800/lectures/20160328.pdf
Three case studies:
■ 2003: An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for United States National Security (Pentagon)
■ 2007: Oil Shockwave Simulation (DoD)
■ 2015: Climate Refugees in Syria (Scientific American)
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Climate Intervention Reports Release Briefing Webcast
Watch the briefing given at the release of two National Research Council reports, Climate Intervention: Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration, and Climate Intervention: Reflecting Sunlight to Cool Earth.
http://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/videos-multimedia/climate-intervention-reports-release-briefing-webcast/
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