Thursday, June 3, 2021

Droughts 2.006

 
2006       Syria is hit by the worst drought in 500 years.

2006       Australia
            drought - one of the major abiotic stresses
            on plants growth - in Australia
            affecting wheat yield

2006-7     drought in the greater Fertile Crescent—
            present-day
            Iraq, southeastern Turkey, western Iran,
            Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestine, and
            parts of Egypt—was the longest and
            most severe drought ever recorded.

2007       Brent Eng and José Ciro Martinez note that until
            2007, Syria’s self-sufficiency in food
            production, specifically wheat, was a cause
            célèbre in the wider region.  

2010       Russia
            summer of 2010,  a wheat crisis due to severe weather
            conditions in Russia. The world's third largest producers
            of wheat saw a severe drought and wildfires that
            destroyed one-fifth of its wheat production.
            The drought, which was said to be the worst
            in 130 years, led to a 30 percent decrease in the
             wheat Russia could export. The weather conditions
             also affected harvests in neighboring wheat producing
             countries such as; Ukraine and Kazakhstan.[1]

2010–2011  China drought was a drought that began in late 2010 and
            impacted eight provinces in the northern part of the
            People's Republic of China (PRC).
           it affected most of wheat-producing regions in the PRC.
 
  • Do not believe in every thing you read
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

1928-1930 drought in China "the most disastrous event in the 20th century in               China."  The drought led to a widespread famine and malnutrition,
        claiming the lives of anywhere between half million to 10 million
        people.
     1934 was the driest and most widespread of the last millennium.
     1934 Had Worst Drought in North American drought history
           over the last 1,000 years
 ([ in 13 years (2021 + 13) = 2034, it will be 100 years from 1934 ])
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

The 2010–2011 China drought was a drought that began in late 2010 and impacted eight provinces in the northern part of the People's Republic of China (PRC). It was the worst drought to hit the country in 60 years, and it affected most of wheat-producing regions in the PRC.

source:
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010–11_China_drought

  • Do not believe in every thing you read
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

 https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/molecule-that-made-us/episodes/episode-3-crisis/

Earth’s changing water cycle, and water for profit, are forcing changes across the globe.

     ••••   •••   •••• 

Water scientist, Jay Famiglietti

This story begins in Syria in 2006, when they were hit by the worst drought in 500 years. Farmers began to overdraw water from their aquifer. With GRACE, Jay could see it as it was happening. We saw the Syria hotspot and we saw that ground water depletion way ahead of time. And we did try to communicate that to the Pentagon, err State Department ummm… and its, you know it’s tough, it’s tough to get attention.

You know, who are you? You’re some Professor that walks in with a research paper err and a colorful map erm and it’s hard to really convey what’s, what’s happening. But, you know, we made our efforts repeatedly.

     ••••   •••   ••••

One way might be to look at it as a series of dominos. It was a set of dominos that collapsed over a ten-year period. And it started when Australia faced a drought described as: “a 1000-year event”.“Australia is dying of thirst.” “And where there used to be water, there is only dry, cracked earth.” During the winter, countries in the Northern hemisphere depend on the Southern hemisphere for wheat. And the drought threatened Australia’s ability to supply this winter-wheat to the rest of the world. Then, the next domino fell. In 2010, when mainland China suffered its own drought. “The drought ravaging China is being called the worst in a century.” Wheat is a global commodity traded on the international market, so liable to market forces. So, if China needs more wheat, my thinking was: Does this have another impact somewhere else in the world? Troy followed the trail to the Middle East where farmers were suffering from their own drought. And with the wheat issues in Australia and China, it affected food prices in Syria and Egypt. So, as Egypt needs more wheat and China needs more wheat there is less wheat available. Then in 2010 another domino fell. Russia, the largest exporter of wheat to the Middle East, was gripped by a devastating heat wave. Due to abnormally high temperatures and drought, I believe it is reasonable to introduce a temporary ban on grain and wheat products export. With wheat exports from Russia reduced by 80% - world prices skyrocket. It’s Christmas for the speculators as prices drive upwards....Wheat by a whopping 130% There’s a limited supply, great demand… Speculators on the commodities market saw an opportunity – they bought and held onto the wheat… while prices rose.

     ••••   •••   ••••

source:
        https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/molecule-that-made-us/episodes/episode-3-crisis/
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

     In 1964, the National Academy of Sciences issued a study that recognized the possibility of “inadvertent weather modification” caused by the burning of fossil fuels.

     In 1965, President Lyndon Johnson’s Science Advisory Committee warned him that by the year 2000, there would be 25 percent more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. In the words of the Committee, the continued use of fossil fuels “will modify the heat balance of the atmosphere to such an extent that marked changes in climate, not controllable through local or even national efforts, could occur.”

     Later that year, President Johnson issued a special message to Congress. “This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale,” he said, “through a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.”

     In the 1970s, the National Research Council issued two additional reports on global climate change. And in 1978, the director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Dr. Robert White, wrote that “industrial wastes, such as carbon dioxide released during the burning of fossil fuels, can have consequences for climate that pose a considerable threat to future societies.” Dr. White warned the economic and social impacts could be “ominous”.

     By 1979, our most respected scientists had become even more certain about this threat. The National Research Council at the National Academy of Sciences issued this conclusion: “The close linkage between man’s welfare and the climate regime within which his society has evolved suggests that such climatic changes would have a profound impact on human society.”

     http://www.stopglobalwarming.org/news/floods-fires-and-another-teachable-moment/

  • Do not believe in every thing you read
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/05/5-droughts-that-changed-human-history/


5 droughts that changed human history
Douglas Broom Senior Writer, Formative Content

Reports of severe droughts are rarely out of the headlines as our world warms up. North Korea has said it's suffering the worst drought in 37 years, while the last five months have been the driest in the history of the Panama Canal, according to authorities.

A recent study says human activity could have exacerbated a century of such droughts.

NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) compared historical precipitation and tree ring data between 1900 and 2005, finding that a "human fingerprint" - through human-manufactured greenhouse gasses - has had a significant impact on global drought risk.

The report argues this human impact is set to grow, potentially leading to "severe" consequences for humanity - including more frequent and severe droughts, food and water shortages, destructive wildfires and conflicts between people competing for resources.

It’s a sobering scenario that, if realized, would lengthen an already extensive list of droughts that have affected the trajectory of human history for thousands of years. Here are five of those droughts and how they are thought to have changed the world.
Number of deaths caused by major droughts worldwide from 1900 to 2016

Number of deaths caused by major droughts worldwide from 1900 to 2016

Image: Statista


1. The drought that prompted the spread of humanity

 ►  https://www.pnas.org/content/104/42/16416

DNA research suggests a series of megadroughts between 135,000 and 75,000 years ago may have been responsible for the first migrations of early humans out of Africa.

Scientists say that variable climate conditions made the land in parts of Africa frequently inhospitable for human habitation. Droughts may have limited access to fundamental resources, forcing inhabitants to migrate outside the continent to find sustenance.


2. The drought that changed ancient Egypt

 ►  https://www.academia.edu/212026/Beetles_and_the_decline_of_the_Old_Kingdom_Climate_change_in_ancient_Egypt

Archaeologists investigating the royal tombs of Egypt's Old Kingdom found evidence of a drought that hit the Middle East and parts of Europe 4,500 years ago.

Some experts say it was that drought, rather than civil strife, that caused the fall of the pharaohs, who ruled Ancient Egypt for 3,000 years before the region became a province of the Roman Empire in 30BC.


3. The drought that destroyed the Mayans

The Mayan empire in Mesoamerica was hit by drought at the most vulnerable moment in its history.

 ►  https://science.sciencemag.org/content/361/6401/498

Rapid population growth coincided with a halving of annual rainfall 1,200 years ago, causing crops to fail and a war with neighbouring nations over dwindling water resources to ultimately precipitate the demise of the Mayan civilization.


4. The drought that spread deadly diseases

The Dust Bowl in the Great Plains of the US Midwest and Canada in the mid-1930s drove two million people off the land and led to an outbreak of diseases.

 ►  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1996313/pdf/pubhealthreporig01958-0004.pdf

At the time it was not realized that the dust transmitted measles, influenza and a fungal lung disease called Valley Fever. For people already weakened by malnutrition, these diseases often proved fatal.


5. China's 'Most Disastrous' Drought

While China has weathered numerous severe droughts throughout its history, perhaps none was as consequential as the 1928-1930 drought, which some experts have called "the most disastrous event in the 20th century in China." The drought led to a widespread famine, claiming the lives of anywhere between three million and 10 million people.

 ►  https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927810500212

More recently, in mid-2017, Chinese authorities said a large northern region had experienced the worst drought on record, citing climate change as the culprit for extreme weather patterns throughout parts of the country.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.


source:
        https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/05/5-droughts-that-changed-human-history/

  • Do not believe in every thing you read
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

nasa.gov
NASA Study Finds 1934 Had Worst Drought of Last Thousand Years

A new study using a reconstruction of North American drought history over the last 1,000 years found that the drought of 1934 was the driest and most widespread of the last millennium.

Using a tree-ring-based drought record from the years 1000 to 2005 and modern records, scientists from NASA and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory found the 1934 drought was 30 percent more severe than the runner-up drought (in 1580) and extended across 71.6 percent of western North America. For comparison, the average extent of the 2012 drought was 59.7 percent.

     ••••   •••   ••••

“We want to understand droughts of the past to understand to what extent climate change might make it more or less likely that those events occur in the future," Cook said.

The abnormal high-pressure system is one lesson from the past that informs scientists' understanding of the current severe drought in California and the western United States.

"What you saw during this last winter and during 1934, because of this high pressure in the atmosphere, is that all the wintertime storms that would normally come into places like California instead got steered much, much farther north,” Cook said. “It's these wintertime storms that provide most of the moisture in California. So without getting that rainfall it led to a pretty severe drought."

This type of high-pressure system is part of normal variation in the atmosphere, and whether or not it will appear in a given year is difficult to predict in computer models of the climate. Models are more attuned to droughts caused by La Niña's colder sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which likely triggered the multi-year Dust Bowl drought throughout the 1930s. In a normal La Niña year, the Pacific Northwest receives more rain than usual and the southwestern states typically dry out.

But a comparison of weather data to models looking at La Niña effects showed that the rain-blocking high-pressure system in the winter of 1933-34 overrode the effects of La Niña for the western states. This dried out areas from northern California to the Rockies that otherwise might have been wetter.

As winter ended, the high-pressure system shifted eastward, interfering with spring and summer rains that typically fall on the central plains. The dry conditions were exacerbated and spread even farther east by dust storms.

"We found that a lot of the drying that occurred in the spring time occurred downwind from where the dust storms originated," Cook said, "suggesting that it's actually the dust in the atmosphere that's driving at least some of the drying in the spring and really allowing this drought event to spread upwards into the central plains."

     ••••   •••   ••••

source:
        https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/1934-had-worst-drought-of-last-thousand-years/


  • Do not believe in every thing you read
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

nasa.gov
NASA Study Finds 1934 Had Worst Drought of Last Thousand Years


https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/1934-had-worst-drought-of-last-thousand-years/


A new study using a reconstruction of North American drought history over the last 1,000 years found that the drought of 1934 was the driest and most widespread of the last millennium.

Using a tree-ring-based drought record from the years 1000 to 2005 and modern records, scientists from NASA and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory found the 1934 drought was 30 percent more severe than the runner-up drought (in 1580) and extended across 71.6 percent of western North America. For comparison, the average extent of the 2012 drought was 59.7 percent.

This photo shows a farmer and his two sons during a dust storm in Cimarron County, Oklahoma, 1936. The 1930s Dust Bowl drought had four drought events with no time to recover in between: 1930-31, 1934, 1936 and 1939-40.

Image Credit:

Arthur Rothstein, Farm Security Administration

"It was the worst by a large margin, falling pretty far outside the normal range of variability that we see in the record," said climate scientist Ben Cook at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York. Cook is lead author of the study, which will publish in the Oct. 17 edition of Geophysical Research Letters.

Two sets of conditions led to the severity and extent of the 1934 drought. First, a high-pressure system in winter sat over the west coast of the United States and turned away wet weather – a pattern similar to that which occurred in the winter of 2013-14. Second, the spring of 1934 saw dust storms, caused by poor land management practices, suppress rainfall.

Five new NASA Earth science missions are launching in 2014 to expand our understanding of Earth’s changing climate and environment.

"In combination then, these two different phenomena managed to bring almost the entire nation into a drought at that time," said co-author Richard Seager, professor at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University in New York. "The fact that it was the worst of the millennium was probably in part because of the human role."

Brown colors of the Palmer Drought Severity Index, or PDSI, indicate strong drought conditions across the United States in the summer of 1934. PDSI was calculated from monthly averages of precipitation, temperature and other factors from 1934, available from the Climate Research Unit.

According to the recent Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, climate change is likely to make droughts in North America worse, and the southwest in particular is expected to become significantly drier as are summers in the central plains. Looking back one thousand years in time is one way to get a handle on the natural variability of droughts so that scientists can tease out anthropogenic effects – such as the dust storms of 1934.

“We want to understand droughts of the past to understand to what extent climate change might make it more or less likely that those events occur in the future," Cook said.

The abnormal high-pressure system is one lesson from the past that informs scientists' understanding of the current severe drought in California and the western United States.

"What you saw during this last winter and during 1934, because of this high pressure in the atmosphere, is that all the wintertime storms that would normally come into places like California instead got steered much, much farther north,” Cook said. “It's these wintertime storms that provide most of the moisture in California. So without getting that rainfall it led to a pretty severe drought."

This type of high-pressure system is part of normal variation in the atmosphere, and whether or not it will appear in a given year is difficult to predict in computer models of the climate. Models are more attuned to droughts caused by La Niña's colder sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which likely triggered the multi-year Dust Bowl drought throughout the 1930s. In a normal La Niña year, the Pacific Northwest receives more rain than usual and the southwestern states typically dry out.

But a comparison of weather data to models looking at La Niña effects showed that the rain-blocking high-pressure system in the winter of 1933-34 overrode the effects of La Niña for the western states. This dried out areas from northern California to the Rockies that otherwise might have been wetter.

As winter ended, the high-pressure system shifted eastward, interfering with spring and summer rains that typically fall on the central plains. The dry conditions were exacerbated and spread even farther east by dust storms.

"We found that a lot of the drying that occurred in the spring time occurred downwind from where the dust storms originated," Cook said, "suggesting that it's actually the dust in the atmosphere that's driving at least some of the drying in the spring and really allowing this drought event to spread upwards into the central plains."

A "black blizzard" dust storm in South Dakota, 1934.

Image Credit:

National Archives FDR Library Public Domain Photographs

Dust clouds reflect sunlight and block solar energy from reaching the surface. That prevents evaporation that would otherwise help form rain clouds, meaning that the presence of the dust clouds themselves leads to less rain, Cook said.

"Previous work and this work offers some evidence that you need this dust feedback to explain the real anomalous nature of the Dust Bowl drought in 1934," Cook said.

Dust storms like the ones in the 1930s aren't a problem in North America today. The agricultural practices that gave rise to the Dust Bowl were replaced by those that minimize erosion. Still, agricultural producers need to pay attention to the changing climate and adapt accordingly, not forgetting the lessons of the past, said Seager. "The risk of severe mid-continental droughts is expected to go up over time, not down," he said.


source:
        https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/1934-had-worst-drought-of-last-thousand-years/


  • Do not believe in every thing you read
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

water triage:

soil moisture => poor planting conditions

poor planting conditions <= no irrigation (underground water is being used for other uses)

to access ((underground water)) you need to either digg a very deep hole, or you need a drilling rigg to make a very deep hole, then you need a water pump with a very long tube with a filter, and you need a way to power the water pump (like ...), and while you are digging or drilling the hole, you are gonna need a way to make sure the surface surrounding the hole does not break down to fill up the hole you are digging or drilling, and you need a method to bring up the ground water to the irrigation pond; keeping in mind that you are not the only one doing this, everyone else is in the same boat, so they are also going to want the water for their irrigation pond for their use, like to make beer, to wash their car, to take a bath, to wash the dishes, to flush the toilet, to cook food, to make IC chips, to make potatoes chip, to fill their swimming pool, to water their lawn, to put out the house fire of that rich guy down the street (we do not put out fire for poor people house, unless the property is owned by the rich landlord), to wash their hands and feet, to brush their teeth, ..., etc. ... 

major droughts + higher temperatures => soil moisture deficits

soil moisture deficits =>  ... => one of the major abiotic plants stresses

plants stress => plants growth => crop yields => FUBAR logistics => hunger game

crop yields => future contracts commodities speculators => hunger game

crop yields => PANIC => hoarding => hunger game

low crop yields => centralized food distribution => hoarding => hunger game

China: crop yields => misguided centralized policy => not enough to eat in the countryside

crop yields => ... => hunger game

The human effect on recent major U.S. droughts is complicated. Little evidence is found for a human influence on observed precipitation deficits, but much evidence is found for a human influence on surface soil moisture deficits due to increased evapotranspiration caused by higher temperatures. (High confidence)

source:
        https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/8/

  • Do not believe in every thing you read
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

Hunger game is a highly likely scenario in the next 1,000 years

  • Do not believe in every thing you read
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

https://climateandsecurity.org/2012/02/syria-climate-change-drought-and-social-unrest/

 Climate Change, Drought and Social Unrest

     ••••   •••   ••••

This article was also posted on AlertNet
 ►  http://www.trust.org/alertnet/blogs/climate-conversations/climate-change-drought-and-social-unrest-in-syria/

by Francesco Femia and Caitlin Werrell

     ••••   •••   ••••

Water shortages, crop-failure and displacement

From 2006-2011, up to 60% of Syria’s land experienced, in the terms of one expert, “the worst long-term drought and most severe set of crop failures since agricultural civilizations began in the Fertile Crescent many millennia ago.”  According to a special case study from last year’s Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR), of the most vulnerable Syrians dependent on agriculture, particularly in the northeast governorate of Hassakeh (but also in the south), “nearly 75 percent…suffered total crop failure.” Herders in the northeast lost around 85% of their livestock, affecting 1.3 million people.

 ►  http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2011/en/bgdocs/Erian_Katlan_&_Babah_2010.pdf

 ►  http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/14/world/middleeast/14syria.html

The human and economic costs are enormous.  In 2009, the UN and IFRC reported that over 800,000 Syrians had lost their entire livelihood as a result of the droughts. By 2011, the aforementioned GAR report estimated that the number of Syrians who were left extremely “food insecure” by the droughts sat at about one million. The number of people driven into extreme poverty is even worse, with a UN report from last year estimating two to three million people affected.

 ►  http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2011/en/bgdocs/Erian_Katlan_&_Babah_2010.pdf

This has led to a massive exodus of farmers, herders and agriculturally-dependent rural families from the countryside to the cities. Last January, it was reported that crop failures (particularly the Halaby pepper) just in the farming villages around the city of Aleppo, had led “200,000 rural villagers to leave for the cities.” In October 2010, the New York Times highlighted a UN estimate that 50,000 families migrated from rural areas just that year, “on top of the hundreds of thousands of people who fled in earlier years.” In context of Syrian cities coping with influxes of Iraqi refugees since the U.S. invasion in 2003, this has placed additional strains and tensions on an already stressed and disenfranchised population.


Climate change, natural resource mis-management, and demographics

The reasons for the collapse of Syria’s farmland are a complex interplay of variables, including climate change, natural resource mis-management, and demographic dynamics.

A NOAA study published last October in the Journal of Climate found strong and observable evidence that the recent prolonged period of drought in the Mediterranean littoral and the Middle East is linked to climate change. On top of this, the study also found worrying agreement between observed climate impacts, and future projections from climate models. A recent model of climate change impacts on Syria conducted by IFPRI, for example, projects that if current rates of global greenhouse gas emissions continue, yields of rainfed crops in the country may decline “between 29 and 57 percent from 2010 to 2050.”

 ►  http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ifpridp01091.pdf

     ••••   •••   ••••

source:
        https://climateandsecurity.org/2012/02/syria-climate-change-drought-and-social-unrest/

  • Do not believe in every thing you read
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

https://daily.jstor.org/climate-change-and-syrias-civil-war/

The 2006-7 drought in the greater Fertile Crescent—present-day Iraq, southeastern Turkey, western Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestine, and parts of Egypt—was the longest and most severe drought ever recorded. Climate scientists Colin P. Kelley et al. link this drought to a long-term warming trend in the eastern Mediterranean which can only be explained by a rise in greenhouse emissions and human-induced climate change.

The same scientists also link this drought to heightened social vulnerability and the onset of the Syrian civil war. In the wake of the drought, agricultural collapse pushed rural people into cities in large numbers. Competition over resources and jobs, already scarce following decades of poor governance, took on an ethnic dimension. Kelley et al. quote a female farmer who states, “The drought and unemployment were important in pushing people toward revolution. When the drought happened, we could handle it for two years, and then we said, ‘It’s enough.'”

As complex social phenomena, civil wars cannot be disaggregated into single causes.

This claim has not gone unchallenged. In a rebuttal to this theory published in The Guardian, social scientists Jan Selby and Mike Hulme attribute Syria’s rural-urban migration to President Bashar al-Assad’s economic liberalization policies which scrapped agricultural fuel subsidies, plunging farmers into massive debt. Selby and Hulme also question the assertion that migrants were targeted as causing social stress. They fear that drawing causal links between climate change and conflict become “rhetorical moves to appeal to security interests or achieve sensational headlines,” ultimately doing disservice to both issues.


The role of agricultural policy deserves particular attention for the way it has exacerbated the Syrian civil war.  Brent Eng and José Ciro Martinez note that until 2007, Syria’s self-sufficiency in food production, specifically wheat, was a cause célèbre in the wider region.  But the next five years’ mismanagement of resources, reduced subsidies, and drought pushed a robust agricultural sector into decline, raising food prices and stirring popular discontent against President Bashar al-Assad’s government.  After the onset of war, food stocks and agricultural machinery were attacked by the regime to starve out rebel areas, thus turning temporary drought-induced food shortages into long-term shortfalls.

While the climate change explanation for Syria’s civil war is compelling, large-scale social conflict probably can’t be attributed to climate alone. As complex social phenomena, civil wars cannot be disaggregated into single causes.

source:
        https://daily.jstor.org/climate-change-and-syrias-civil-war/

  • Do not believe in every thing you read
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25733898/

Epub 2015 Mar 2.
Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought
Colin P Kelley  1 , Shahrzad Mohtadi  2 , Mark A Cane  3 , Richard Seager  3 , Yochanan Kushnir  3

Affiliations

    PMID: 25733898
    PMCID: PMC4371967
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1421533112


Abstract

Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation [rainfall] is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.

Keywords: Syria; climate change; conflict; drought; unrest.

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.


source:
        https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25733898/
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25733898/

  • Do not believe in every thing you read
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

Farm Lobby: Russia's Grain Exports Stop
December 24, 2014 08:46 AM

Russia's main wheat buyers are Turkey, Iran and, very vulnerable to supply disruption, Egypt.

source:
       https://www.voanews.com/europe/farm-lobby-russias-grain-exports-stop

  • Do not believe in every thing you read
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

In the summer of 2010, the global markets experienced a wheat crisis due to severe weather conditions in Russia. The world's third largest producers of wheat saw a severe drought and wildfires that destroyed one-fifth of its wheat production. The drought, which was said to be the worst in 130 years, led to a 30 percent decrease in the wheat Russia could export. The weather conditions also affected harvests in neighboring wheat producing countries such as; Ukraine and Kazakhstan.[1]

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations re-evaluated the 2010 global wheat production forecast at 651 million tons from 676 million tons but expected markets were better off than the 2008 crisis.[2] In 2008, the global markets experienced a similar crisis when wheat prices increased to $13 a bushel and spawned food riots. The Russian wheat crisis of 2008 taught many countries to keep higher inventories and experts believe the 2010 situation is much more stable because of larger stockpiles.[3]


source:
        http://www.marketswiki.com/wiki/Russian_Wheat_Crisis_of_2010

  • Do not believe in every thing you read
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

The economic impact of farm drought in rural Australia
Drought is a recurring feature of rural life in Australia, but its increased frequency may require a policy rethink.

    Saul Eslake
    Non-executive Director and Writer

27 September 2018

Since systematic weather recording began in the late-19th century, Australia has experienced three prolonged, widespread droughts —
   the Federation Drought (1895–1903),
   the drought that coincided with WWII, and
   the Millennium Drought (2001–09).

In between these episodes, there have been shorter, more localised, but often more severe droughts — in the mid-1960s, 1982–83, and the early 1990s. More recently, much of eastern Australia has been experiencing protracted dry conditions and, over the winter months, unusually high temperatures.

     ••••   •••   ••••

source:
        http://aicd.companydirectors.com.au/membership/company-director-magazine/2018-back-editions/october/economist-the-big-dry

        https://www.anz.com/documents/economics/Impactofthedrought2006-07.pdf

        https://www.farmprogress.com/drought-australia-influencing-2007-wheat-production-price


  • Do not believe in every thing you read
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

hard red winter (HRW) wheat

A problem is that much of the HRW area has insufficient moisture. Poor planting conditions lower the odds of average or better yields next June.

source:
        https://www.farmprogress.com/drought-australia-influencing-2007-wheat-production-price


  • Do not believe in every thing you read
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

Franchino, Vicky
 Droughts / by Vicky Franchino
1. droughts - juvenile literature
2. drought forecasting - juvenile literature
3. mathematics - juvenile literature

copyright © 2012 by Cherry Lake Publishing

Droughts happen whenever an area gets less
precipitation(rain fall) than usual for a long enough time to cause
big problems.  Droughts can occur in both dry places and wet
places.  Droughts are serious because they cause crops and
animals to die and people to lose their jobs.  In poor country,
droughts usually result in a food shortage.

There are many different types of drought.
    ●  A meteorological drought means there is less precipitation(rain fall)
than usual.
    ●  A hydrological drought occurs when lakes and rivers have
lower-than-normal water levels.
    ●  Agricultureal droughts happen when there isn't enough water
to grow crops.

Sometimes areas are naturally very dry.  This means that
water always has to be brought to that area.  The city of
Las Vegas, Nevada, is an example.  Some parts of the world
have natural dry seasons.  There is enough rain at certain
times of the year and very little rain at others.  Costa Rica and
India are two countries with natural dry seasons.

There is even such a thing as an invisible drought.  This
means that high temperatures cause most rainwater to
evaporate, or go back into the air, before it can soak into
the ground.

India's dry season usually last from October to June.


Seattle, WA
Las Vegas, NV


If a high-[air] pressure system stays in an area for a long
time, it can cause a drought.

Two examples are the weather patterns called El Nino and
La Nina.  During El Nino, the water in the Pacific Ocean
near the equator is unusually warm.  This results in more
rainfall on the west coast of North and South America, and
less rainfall in Indonesia and Australia.  During La Nina, the
opposite happens.  The water in the Pacific [ocean] are
usually cold, and there is more rainfall in Indonesia and
Australia.


[p.11]
<see page 11 of the book>


Humans also make droughts worse through deforestation,
or cutting down trees.  Trees, like all growing plants,
help prevent soil from washing away.  They also add
moisture to the air through a process called
transpiration(plants release moisture into the air).

Sometimes an area can experience drought even when
it receives the same amount of rain it normally would.
This happens when an area's population increases, and
the need for water increases along with it.  As the world's
population grows, so does the risk of drought.

Scientists also study trees and soil to learn about
droughts that happened hundreds of year ago.  For example,
the rings on a tree's trunk are wider in years with sufficient
rainfall and thinner in years when there was a shortage of rain.
Soil layers often contain information that tells scientists about
the amount of water at different times in history.

Archaeologists have found evidence to show that Akkad,
present-day Syria and Iraq. was probably destroyed by drought
around 2200 BCE.  At about the same time, a long-lasting
drought likely wiped out the Egyptian Old Kingdom.  Scientists
have also found signs that ancient civilization in Central and
South America, such as Maya, ended because of drought.

China has suffered from many terrible droughts.  From
1876 to 1979 CE, a drought in eastern China is believed to
have killed as many as 13 million people.  China suffered
another drought in the 1920s that likely killed about half a
million people.

The Sahel region of northern Africa has experienced
extreme levels of drought in the last 30 years.

The worst drought to hit the United States occurred
between 1931 and 1938.  It affected almost every state in the
country.  Bad farming practices made the water shortage even
worse, especially in the Midwest.

In 2011, there were 7 billion people on Earth.  Experts
predict that by the year 2050, there will probably be more
than 9 billion.  Each one of these people will need water, so
it's important to find effective ways to manage Earth's water
supply.

Oceans cover about 70 per cent of Earth's surface.
So it might seem like there's plenty of water to meet
the world's growing needs.
Almost all of Earth's water, however, is saltwater,
which cannot be used for drinking or growing food.
Saltwater can be made usable through desalination.
In this process, salt is removed from water to make
it suitable for drinking or irrigation.

Most of the world's desalinated water is used in the
desert countries of the Middle East.

Some people find ways to reuse their "gray" water.
That is the water used for activities such as laundry
and doing the dishes [and bathe and shower]
[to water the plant and-or flush the toilet].

Farmers can save water by changing how they grow crops.
One method is conservation tillage, in which farmers leave
the plant materials from past harvests on the soil's surface.
This helps conserve the moisture in the soil and prevents soil
erosion.

According to the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric
Research, droughts are happening more frequently than
ever.  In the 30 year period between the 1970s and the
early 2000s, the amount of the world that was suffering
from serious droughts doubled.  Today, about 30 percent
of the world is affected by severe drought.

You can save as much as eight gallons a day turning
off the water while you brush your teeth.

Usable water can be hard to come by, even in cities.
 
--

NOTICE: In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C., section 107, some material is provided without permission from the copyright owner, only for purposes of criticism, comment, scholarship and research under the "fair use" provisions of federal copyright laws. These materials may not be distributed further, except for "fair use," without permission of the copyright owner. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml

  • Do not believe in every thing you read

  • Do not believe in every Gott  

  • Do not believe in every little pieces of detail you read, because any piece of  narrative and story can be picked a part by a skilled lawyer

  • the events you have read in (Drought 2.006) is based on real world incidents (I did not make them up.) (an agency could have hire some one to make them up and to put the content on the InterNet, in a website format, for the public to find.)

  • Each of the incidents and events could be true; however, together collectively the stories could paint a false impression of the real world situation in progress and, in regress; there is no way for me to really know what is happening in other places, about other people, about other things, in the past, in the future, and in the present; most of the time, I do not even know what is going on inside my head - the subconscious is mostly a black box; my knowledge is from the messages that are passed on to me (available in the public space, on the public InterNet, on public website, Index by search engine); the messages are not directed at, or for me; they are information - misinformation, disinformation, deceptive information, black information, white information, grey information, sources unidentify able information, verify able information, and verify able information with a chain [silver spider web] of custody [evidence]. [meta-data, tracking cookies]
 
  • this is an impression, an impressionistic painting.

  • In the end, a mammogram or a Pap smear is a portrait of cancer in its infancy. Like any portrait, it is drawn in the hopes that it might capture something essential about the subject - its psyche, its inner being, its future, its behavior. “All photographs are accurate,” the artist Richard Avedon liked to say, “[but] none of them is the truth.” (p.303, Siddhartha Mukherjee, The emperor of all maladies, 2010)

  • when there is a birth, that's a 1 (one); when there is a death, that's a 1 (one) turn into a 0 (zero); in the future, there will be deaths; this is a given; the Goal or the Mission is to do more of the right things, and do less of the wrong things; we will all make mistakes; we will make many mistakes; we will make the same mistakes over and over, again, in many different ways, in many different context and situations; that should not hinder us from taking action or taking no action; the keystone piece about the mistakes [and the right things]  is to recognize them, to acknowledge them, to be aware of them, to document them, to collection them all, to mine the shit [hell] out of them [the mistakes and the right things] for lesson [NOT] learned, and to integrate the lesson learned [& lessons not learned] into The Process for the next evolution - keep on repeating this feedback loop; [think of the cute little mistakes - if we manage to be aware of, catch and document them all - as a dress rehearsal, and test data for ...]; [how do you know if you are doing the right things or the wrong things?; You know the right things from the wrong things from a hybrid of exercise, experience, performance, reading, rehearsal and workshop (2EP-2RW); you gain experience from making mistakes, doing the right things, and getting the feedback; getting good feedback and getting good notes is difficult]; it is better to make mistakes doing the right things wrong, than to make no mistake, and do the wrong things perfectly - Russell Ackoff; if we get more of the right things than the wrong things, then there should be less deaths; not as much 1's (ones) turning to 0's (zeros); if we get more of the wrong things than the right things, then there willl be more deaths - keeping in mind that we, too, shall become a 0 (zero) one day; there is no where to escape to; there is no place to run away from; it is written, and I say these things [un]to you.   
 
  • 99.9% success is unlikely
    • William Forster Lloyd, Two Lectures on the Checks to Population, 1833
    • Garrett Hardin, "The Tragedy of the [unmanaged] Commons", December 1968     
       • Ian Angus, The Myth of the Tragedy of the Commons, Aug 25, 2008
       • https://mronline.org/2008/08/25/the-myth-of-the-tragedy-of-the-commons/
    • Jay W. Forrester, System Dynamics, June 27-29, 1994
    • Per Bak, How nature works, 1996
    • Charles Perrow, Normal accidents : living with high-risk technologies, 1999
    • Sidney Dekker, The field guide to human error investigations, 2002
    • Amanda Ripley, The unthinkable: who survives when disaster strikes and why, 2008
    • Len Fisher, Ph.D., Rock, Paper, Scissors : game theory in everyday life, 2008
    • Peter Senge, Bryan Smith, Nina Kruschwitz, Joe Laur, Sara Schley, The necessary revolution : how individual and organizations are working together to create a sustainable world, 2008
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

Garrett Hardin, "The Tragedy of the [unmanaged] Commons", December 1968     
https://www.garretthardinsociety.org/articles/art_tragedy_of_the_commons.html
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

    • William Stanley Jevons, The Coal Question, 1865 book
       • the efficiency with which a resource is used (reducing the amount necessary for any one use), but the rate of consumption of that resource rises due to increasing demand.
       • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
       • https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2010/12/20/the-efficiency-dilemma
       • Jevons argued that improvements in fuel efficiency tend to increase (rather than decrease) [overall] fuel use.
       • The expansion of slavery in the United States following the invention of the cotton gin has also been cited as an example of the paradox.
       • https://archive.thinkprogress.org/debunking-the-jevons-paradox-nobody-goes-there-anymore-its-too-crowded-7fec531b1411/    
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀
 
California drought and Oregon water
Written January 31st, 2014 
by Hasso Hering


A pool in Newport Beach: What happens if California runs short on water?
California is having its driest winter season in a century and a half. We should not be surprised if sooner or later, somebody tries to revive the schemes of 30 or 40 years ago to tap the rivers of Oregon to help the nation’s biggest state survive.

The most recent notion, if memory serves, was proposed by a Los Angeles County supervisor in the 1970s.The idea was to construct a pipeline and pumping system to capture a small fraction of the Columbia River’s copious flow at its mouth, just before it churns across the bar, and pipe it south. The idea was scorned in Oregon and never got past the conceptual stage. But this may change if conditions get worse.

According to a report in the San Jose Mercury News on Jan. 30, some scientists think California may be in for a megadrought of the kind it has seen with some regularity over thousands of years. The scientists have studied tree rings and other clues in the natural record. They found many severely dry periods lasting 20 years or so. But they also found one that started in 850 and lasted 240 years, followed by another that lasted 180 years.

California now has 38 million people, nearly 10 times the population of Oregon. Sources quoted in the San Jose story speculated that the population of cities could probably cope by adopting severe conservation measures and paying much more for the water still available, but California agriculture would disappear because the price of irrigation would be more than the crops would bring.

One thing worth noting: Since we can’t blame long western droughts a thousand years ago on people burning fossil fuels, we should not blame current droughts on that either. What the studies show is that climate does indeed change, and we had better learn to cope. Sending Oregon water south would be a stretch, but if it’s technically feasible, it may indeed be attempted some day, and probably well before the California drought has lasted 100 years. (hh)

source:
        https://hh-today.com/california-drought-and-oregon-water/
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

Columbia River Water Next Export to California
By Jerry Dawson

In: Measure 37
Saturday December 12, 2009


Speculation is high that Oregon has, for the first time, begun formal exploration into the feasibility of sending surplus water from the Columbia River south to thirsty California. The success of the recently announced giant wind farm has water export proponents salivating at the chance to tap just a small portion of the average 265,000 cubic feet of water per second that slips by Oregon, unused but for power generation, fish habitat and limited shipping.

Closed-door sessions have been held privately in recent months to discuss the very future of the Columbia River as we know it today. People have been asking for Oregon’s water for a long time. In 1990 Kenneth Hahn, an LA County Supervisor, formally requested water from Oregon via pipe to offset the severe water shortages they were experiencing. Then governor Neil Goldschmidt said no to the request, as did then Washington governor Booth Gardner.

Oh, how times have changed. With Oregon now leading the way in green power exports with the proposed Shepherds’ Flat Wind Farm, many around the state see the opportunity to export water as the next logical export. Raymond Branxton, a leading proponent of the plan to export water, said recently, “Why wouldn’t we do this? Our state is one of the worst in the entire nation in unemployment and in shortages of state revenue. This extra water, and there is extra, believe me, is like gold or oil. Billions of dollars are at stake. And every single hour we simply watch as over six billion gallons of water goes by, untapped, and empties into the vast Pacific Ocean. I say tap it and tap it now. I am talking with government officials on a regular basis.”

It is estimated that Oregon could supply California with approximately 8 billion gallons of water each day without any deleterious effect on either the environment or shipping. That amount of water could easily end, forever, the shortages that have plagued Southern California for decades. At the same time, jobs and revenue would flow into Oregon in numbers never seen before. It is estimated that at least 7,000 new temporary jobs would be created to construct the pipe and that 125 permanent jobs would be created in maintaining the pipe and pumps needed to supply the water. Revenue for this water, at current California rates, could easily top six million dollars per day or more. “That is over two billion dollars of revenue per year for Oregon for something that costs Oregon nothing,” noted Branxton.

“How anyone could oppose this in times like these is a mystery to me,” exclaimed Branxton at a recent secret meeting to discuss water export. “The pipe can go right next to the power lines and we can run the pumps with the wind power. It is simply amazing to me that we have not moved forward on this much sooner. Goldschmidt is long gone — maybe our next governor will have the foresight to put this much-needed plan into place,” Branxton predicted.

source:
        https://www.textise.net/showText.aspx?strURL=https://oregoncatalyst.com/2885-columbia-river-water-next-export-to-california.html
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/the-race-of-our-lives-revisited/
  <---------------------------------------------------------------------------->

Joseph Interprets the King’s Dreams

41 Two years later the king[a] of Egypt dreamed he was standing beside the Nile River. 2 Suddenly, seven fat, healthy cows came up from the river and started eating grass along the bank. 3 Then seven ugly, skinny cows came up out of the river and 4 ate the fat, healthy cows. When this happened, the king woke up.

5 The king went back to sleep and had another dream. This time seven full heads of grain were growing on a single stalk. 6 Later, seven other heads of grain appeared, but they were thin and scorched by the east wind. 7 The thin heads of grain swallowed the seven full heads. Again the king woke up, and it had only been a dream.

8 The next morning the king was upset. So he called in his magicians and wise men and told them what he had dreamed. None of them could tell him what the dreams meant.

9 The king’s personal servant said:

Now I remember what I was supposed to do. 10 When you were angry with me and your chief cook, you threw us both in jail in the house of the captain of the guard. 11 One night we both had dreams, and each dream had a different meaning. 12 A young Hebrew, who was a servant of the captain of the guard, was there with us at the time. When we told him our dreams, he explained what each of them meant, 13 and everything happened just as he said it would. I got my job back, and the cook was put to death.

14 The king sent for Joseph, who was quickly brought out of jail. He shaved, changed his clothes, and went to the king.

15 The king said to him, “I had a dream, yet no one can explain what it means. I am told that you can interpret dreams.”

16 “Your Majesty,” Joseph answered, “I can’t do it myself, but God can give a good meaning to your dreams.”

17 The king told Joseph:

I dreamed I was standing on the bank of the Nile River. 18 I saw seven fat, healthy cows come up out of the river, and they began feeding on the grass. 19 Next, seven skinny, bony cows came up out of the river. I have never seen such terrible looking cows anywhere in Egypt. 20 The skinny cows ate the fat ones. 21 But you couldn’t tell it, because these skinny cows were just as skinny as they were before. Right away, I woke up.

22 I also dreamed that I saw seven heads of grain growing on one stalk. The heads were full and ripe. 23 Then seven other heads of grain came up. They were thin and scorched by a wind from the desert. 24 These heads of grain swallowed the full ones. I told my dreams to the magicians, but none of them could tell me the meaning of the dreams.

25 Joseph replied:

Your Majesty, both of your dreams mean the same thing, and in them God has shown what he is going to do. 26 The seven good cows stand for seven years, and so do the seven good heads of grain. 27 The seven skinny, ugly cows that came up later also stand for seven years, as do the seven bad heads of grain that were scorched by the east wind. The dreams mean there will be seven years when there won’t be enough grain.

28 It is just as I said—God has shown what he intends to do. 29 For seven years Egypt will have more than enough grain, 30 but that will be followed by seven years when there won’t be enough. The good years of plenty will be forgotten, and everywhere in Egypt people will be starving. 31 The famine will be so bad that no one will remember that once there had been plenty. 32 God has given you two dreams to let you know that he has definitely decided to do this and that he will do it soon.

33 Your Majesty, you should find someone who is wise and will know what to do, so that you can put him in charge of all Egypt. 34 Then appoint some other officials to collect one-fifth of every crop harvested in Egypt during the seven years when there is plenty. 35 Give them the power to collect the grain during those good years and to store it in your cities. 36 It can be stored until it is needed during the seven years when there won’t be enough grain in Egypt. This will keep the country from being destroyed because of the lack of food.

source:
        https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Genesis+41&version=CEV
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀
 
2014

Population boom, a film by Werner Boote (director of Plastic planet)

  media: Digital Video Disc (DVD)
subject: population, demography, access to resource

there is no population problem; we do not have too many people; there is a congestion problem in cities and in ..., but that is not a population problem;
access to family planning

It is the system under which we lived that determine the kind of consumption and production. 

the global population campaign has worked so well because the myth of over population has been such a convenient excuse

the modern system of population statistics ...
to determine how many school, hospital, and jobs would be needed in the future

demographer

Sudan alone could feed a billion people.
There's so much arable land.

the way rich people are consuming, the way they exploit the resources, ...
first the rich people should learn to consume less, ...
you should say, family planning for cars, when you say, family planning for people they are promoting a lifestyle where having a car for each family member is good, I don't want to go under the World Bank umbrella

they are saying you have to reduce population, you have to follow modern agriculture, you have to use chemical, build infrastructure rather have good health care, you have to privatize, you have to liberalize, you have to import, rather than produce in your own country, and I think World Bank should changed its name from World Bank to Rich countries's bank, ...
 
responsible for pollution, exploitation of natural resources, land grabbing,
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

at No comments:

Wednesday, June 2, 2021

Age of consequences v2°C

 
 Efterretning => Hinweis (German)
      Hinweis => hint    (English)
 Efterretning => note    (English)
    Efterretn => the aftermath
    Efterretn => Die Folgen (German)

Nach (German) => efter (Danish)
Nach (German) => after (English)
         note => seddel (Danish)

Die Folgen (German) => The consequences (English)
          Efterretn => the aftermath

Die Folgen (German) => Konsekvenserne (Danish) 
 
bing.com/translate/

Intelligence Service (ET Efterretnings-Tjenesten)
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

Once upon a time ...
8:46
How to Start a Speech
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w82a1FT5o88
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w82a1FT5o88
Conor Neill
Published on Mar 11, 2012

 “ The Romans did in these instances what all prudent princes ought to do, who have to regard not only present troubles, but also future ones, for which they must prepare with every energy, because, when foreseen, it is easy to remedy them; but if you wait until they approach, the medicine is no longer in time because the malady has become incurable; for it happens in this, as the physicians say it happens in hectic fever, that in the beginning of the malady it is easy to cure but difficult to detect, but in the course of time, not having been either detected or treated in the beginning, it becomes easy to detect but difficult to cure. Thus it happens in affairs of state, for when the evils that arise have been foreseen (which it is only given to a wise man to see), they can be quickly redressed, but when, through not having been foreseen, they have been permitted to grow in a way that every one can see them, there is no longer a remedy.”

— Niccolo Machiavelli, Chapter 3, The Prince, in a discussion of the foreign policy of the Roman Republic
*******************************

 Roger Revelle

   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Revelle
   Al Gore became interested in global warming when he took a course at Harvard University with Professor Roger Revelle, one of the first scientists to measure carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

*******************************

     In 1964, the National Academy of Sciences issued a study that recognized the possibility of “inadvertent weather modification” caused by the burning of fossil fuels.

     In 1965, President Lyndon Johnson’s Science Advisory Committee warned him that by the year 2000, there would be 25 percent more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. In the words of the Committee, the continued use of fossil fuels “will modify the heat balance of the atmosphere to such an extent that marked changes in climate, not controllable through local or even national efforts, could occur.”

     Later that year, President Johnson issued a special message to Congress. “This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale,” he said, “through a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.”

     In the 1970s, the National Research Council issued two additional reports on global climate change. And in 1978, the director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Dr. Robert White, wrote that “industrial wastes, such as carbon dioxide released during the burning of fossil fuels, can have consequences for climate that pose a considerable threat to future societies.” Dr. White warned the economic and social impacts could be “ominous”.

     By 1979, our most respected scientists had become even more certain about this threat. The National Research Council at the National Academy of Sciences issued this conclusion: “The close linkage between man’s welfare and the climate regime within which his society has evolved suggests that such climatic changes would have a profound impact on human society.”

     http://www.stopglobalwarming.org/news/floods-fires-and-another-teachable-moment/

*******************************

'It’s nonlinearity - stupid!'
Nick Breeze  | 3rd January 2019

Nick Breeze interviews professor John Schellnhuber, who set up the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in 1991 to study climate.
https://theecologist.org/2019/jan/03/its-nonlinearity-stupid

Nick Breeze (NB): Thinking back to the beginning of the Potsdam Institute, and where we are today, how do you feel society has responded to the threat of climate disruption?

John Schellnhuber (JS): It is actually paradoxical: society, in the beginning, was more attentive of climate change and global warming, than it is today. I recall very well, in 1988 I was a visiting professor at the University of California, and in the Spring of 1988 there was a famous Senate hearing in the US where Jim Hansen said, 'this is 99 percent due to anthropogenic global warming'.

At that time it made headlines all over the planet because it was a distant threat. It is a threat where you can play around a little bit. 'Wouldn’t it be terrible if it happened?' Today we are in the midst of global warming. You can see it everywhere, and because it is so overwhelming, people just try to push it out of their consciousness.

And this is the problem, actually. We have waited so long to tackle it that we now seem to be overwhelmed and we declare defeat, and this is the worse thing that can happen because still, we can, not solve the problem, but we can minimise it to something that we can still manage.

If we now find reasons to give up, when it will turn into an outright catastrophe, and now I know as a scientist based on the papers we have published in the last two or three years, that we really face the question of whether human civilisation can be sustained over the next century.
   ... ... ...

JS: Yeah, you have to identify a portfolio of options, you know, disruptive innovations, self-amplifying innovations. You cannot predict precisely. You need to look into whether there are high nonlinear potentials, whether it is in electric cars, construction for wood instead of concrete, instead of cement, and so on.

Then you have to bet… say you identify twenty horses, you then have to send all of them into the race, and maybe three of them will make it across the finishing line. But they will instigate the change you need.

The other thing which is very important, the conventional economist will want to be efficient but efficiency is the enemy of innovation. You have to strand assets, you have to waste capital, because you invest into the wrong things, because you cannot know beforehand. But you also invest in the right things.

So I would say that we somehow trapped in this efficiency thing, and we dig deeper and deeper. So we have to have the courage to squander money. To throw money at things that have potential.

It is venture-capital at a global scale we have to muster. We cannot efficiently get ourselves out of this predicament. So we have to save the world but we have to save it in a muddled way, in a chaotic way, and also in a costly way. That is the bottom line, if you want to do it in an optimal way, you will fail.

NB: A moment ago you said that ignoring climate change is the worst thing that could happen, but when news comes out that the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia, are denying the latest climate science, a lot of people get very angry and say what’s the point?! What would you say to them?

JS: Sure, I will very silently work behind the scenes to maybe influence that, through my friends in science and so on. Let’s see what happens. But you see, giving up is not an option. Why? Let me give you an example: I have a ten years old boy and let's assume he has an accident and the doctor says, 'okay, we might save his life if we do this type of surgery but there is only a five percent chance otherwise he will die!' Would you say, 'no, we don’t do it'? Of course, you will do it.

So this is the situation we have now. I think we have more than a five percent chance of succeeding but it is definitely less than 50 percent, in my view. But what is the option? If we have a final chance to save our culture and our civilisation, I am just compelled to do it.

Here, clearly for the planet, there is no alternative. We definitely have a chance which is above zero, as I said, definitely we have no chance whatsoever if we want to be optimal. Optimality is the completely wrong paradigm for the situation we are in!

This Author

Nick Breeze is a climate change journalist and interviewer posting also on envisionation.co.uk. He is also organises the Cambridge Climate Lecture Series (climateseries.com) where Professor Schellnhuber will be speaking on 21st February 2019. Follow Nick Breeze on Twitter at @NickGBreeze

source:
https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/papers
https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/148cb0_a1406e0143ac4c469196d3003bc1e687.pdf

 New Report Suggests 'High Likelihood of Human Civilization Coming To an End' Starting in 2050 (vice.com) 250
Posted by msmash on Wednesday June 05, 2019 @01:21PM from the growing-concern dept.
https://news.slashdot.org/story/19/06/05/1554201/new-report-suggests-high-likelihood-of-human-civilization-coming-to-an-end-starting-in-2050

NOVEMBER 2007
The Age of Consequences:The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change

By Kurt M. Campbell, Jay Gulledge, J.R. McNeill, John Podesta, Peter Ogden, Leon Fuerth, R. James Woolsey, Alexander T.J. Lennon, Julianne Smith, Richard Weitz, and Derek Mix
https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/legacy_files/files/media/csis/pubs/071105_ageofconsequences.pdf
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

http://theageofconsequences.com/

https://www.documentary.org/project/age-consequences
"It is not possible to discuss the future of national and international security without addressing climate change... Food shortages, droughts, floods—all directly tied to climate change will be catalysts for conflict."- U.S. Air Force Gen. Donald Hoffman (ret)A profoundly altered planet; food shortages, water shortages, mass migrations, unrest, competition – war.

http://pbsinternational.org/programs/the-age-of-consequences/
The film delves into how water and food shortages, drought, extreme weather and sea-level rise function as ‘accelerants of instability’ and ‘catalysts for conflict’ in volatile regions of the world. The Age of Consequences interviews Pentagon insiders who make the compelling case that if we go on with business as usual, the consequences of climate change—waves of refugees, failed states, terrorism—will continue to grow in scale and frequency and lead to grave implications for peace and security in the 21st century.

https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-age-of-consequences
 Release Date: January 27, 2017
Summary: The Age of Consequences investigates the impacts of climate change, resource scarcity, migration, and conflict through the lens of US national security and global stability. Whether a long-term vulnerability or sudden shock, the film unpacks how water and food shortages, extreme weather, drought, and sea-level rise function as accelerants of instability and catalysts for conflict. Left unchecked, these threats and risks will continue to grow in scale and frequency, with grave implications for peace and security in the 21st century.

Director: Jared P. Scott
Genre(s): War, Documentary, News
Rating: Not Rated
Runtime: 80 min
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

   41:01
   Age of Consequences The Center for Climate and Security
   https://youtu.be/garGXNcK_m0?t=1418
   https://youtu.be/garGXNcK_m0?t=1418
   https://youtu.be/garGXNcK_m0?t=1498
   https://youtu.be/garGXNcK_m0?t=1498
   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=garGXNcK_m0
   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=garGXNcK_m0
   The Center for Climate and Security
   Published on Nov 7, 2016
   The Center for Climate and Security, Sept 14, 2016: Cast members from the climate and security documentary, "The Age of Consequences," discuss the film and its lessons for the future. The panel was held at the first annual Climate and National Security Forum at the Reserve Officers Association in Washington, DC.
   25:19
    the question is, can we get that done fast enough, to beat the trends we're seeing in chemical composition of our own atmosphere, can we do it quickly enough,  and that's where public policy steps in, where political will steps in, ...
  

   1:01:04
   The Age Of Consequences
   https://youtu.be/NHVGxzEajrg?t=2909
   https://youtu.be/NHVGxzEajrg?t=2909
   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NHVGxzEajrg
   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NHVGxzEajrg
   HooverInstitution
   Published on Feb 27, 2017
   The Hoover Institution hosted "The Age of Consequences" on Wednesday, February 22, 2017 from 5:15pm - 8:00pm EST.
   https://youtu.be/NHVGxzEajrg?t=2911
48:31   I got add one thing about this having
48:33   studied the science for 30 years the one
48:36   of the least convenient realities and
48:38   global warming science is this thing
48:40   called commitment, the IPCC reports have
48:43   described this for many years that the
48:46   climate system has momentum and even if
48:49   we had a perfect climate mitigation
48:50   policy on emissions tomorrow the climate
48:54   system won't notice that for about two
48:56   generations in a meaningful way meaning
48:58   sea level raised rise patterns of
49:01   climate change are pretty much locked in
49:03   you're looking at the climate change
49:04   built that's already built and that's why
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/supersurvivors/201707/why-the-five-stages-grief-are-wrong

   Even if the stages aren’t exactly gospel, there are three important lessons to take from Kubler-Ross’ work, no matter what our unique grief process may be like.

   Lesson 1: A Little Denial Is Natural

   Lesson 2: Grief Can Shake Our Faith

   Lesson 3: Grief Usually Leads to Acceptance

   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

    Denmark intel helped US NSA to spy on European politicians

Cyber Security

May 31, 2021
3 min read

 • Danish telecommunications hub.

 • allowed the US National Security Agency (NSA) to tap into a primary internet and telecommunications hub in Denmark

 • “The NSA is said to have accessed text messages and the phone conversations of a number of prominent individuals by tapping into Danish internet cables in co-operation with the FE.”

 • allowed the NSA to obtain data using the telephone numbers of politicians as search parameters, according to DR.

 • The NSA and the Danish intelligence signed a secret pact that allowed the cyberspies to eavesdrop on sensitive communications between 2012 and 2014

 • to spy on communications passing through the Sandagergårdan hub in Dragor, near Copenhagen.

     ••••   •••   ••••

Danish Defense Intelligence Service (Danish: Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste, FE) allowed the US National Security Agency (NSA) to tap into a primary internet and telecommunications hub in Denmark, the operation allowed the US intelligence agency to spy on the communications of European politicians. According to BBC, the NSA allegedly gathered intelligence on officials from Germany, France, Sweden, and Norway.

     ••••   •••   ••••

Pierluigi Paganini

source:
https://cybersecurityworldconference.com/2021/05/31/denmark-intel-helped-us-nsa-to-spy-on-european-politicians/
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

30.05.2021
Danish intelligence service helped NSA spy on EU politicians

Denmark helped the NSA spy on politicians

Danish intelligence service [Danish Defense Intelligence Service (FE)] helped NSA (US surveillance SIGINT spying agency) secretly intercepted private communication,  on leading politicians in Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands and France, as well as Germany. 

Danish Defense Intelligence Service (FE) => Forsvarets Efterretnings-tjeneste

Forsvarets Efterretnings tjeneste

Efterretnings => intelligence

       Danish => dansk
      Defense => forsvar
 Intelligence => intelligens
      Service => tjeneste

 Efterretning => Hinweis (German)
      Hinweis => hint    (English)
 Efterretning => note    (English)
    Efterretn => the aftermath
    Efterretn => Die Folgen
     Efterret => the after court
     Efterret => Das Nachgericht
        Efter => after
        Efter => Nach
          ret => Rechts (German) => right (English)
(Danish) Højre => Rechts (German) => right (English)

Nach (German) => efter (Danish)
Nach (German) => after (English)
         note => seddel (Danish)

Die Folgen (German) => The consequences (English)
          Efterretn => the aftermath

Die Folgen (German) => Konsekvenserne (Danish)
 
Konsekvenserne (Danish) =>
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => Consequences (English)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => Gevolgen (Dutch)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => Consecuencias (Spanish)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => Conséquences (French)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => последствия (Russian)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => 后果 (Chinese simplified)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => 後果 (Chinese traditional)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => 後果 (Cantonese traditional)
Konsekvenserne (Danish) => 結果 (Japanese)

     Efterretn (Danish) =>
     Efterretn (Danish) => the aftermath (English)
     Efterretn (Danish) => De nasleep (Dutch)
     Efterretn (Danish) => Las secuelas (Spanish)
     Efterretn (Danish) => Les conséquences (French)
     Efterretn (Danish) => Die Folgen (German)
     Efterretn (Danish) => Последствия (Russian)
        after (English) => после (Russian)
     Efterretn (Danish) => 後果 (Chinese traditional)
     Efterretn (Danish) => 後果 (Cantonese traditional)
     Efterretn (Danish) => その余波 (Japanese)

        その余波 (Japanese) =>
        その余波 (Japanese) => 其後果 (Chinese traditional)
        その余波 (Japanese) => 其後果 (Cantonese traditional)
        その余波 (Japanese) => its aftermath (English)
        その余波 (Japanese) => dens eftervirkninger (Danish)
        その余波 (Japanese) => sen jälkimainingit (Finnish)
        その余波 (Japanese) => ses conséquences (French)
        その余波 (Japanese) => seine Nachwirkungen (German)

dens eftervirkninger (Danish) => its aftermath (English)
dens eftervirkninger (Danish) => seine Nachwirkungen (German)

  其後果 (Cantonese traditiona) => Folgen (German)
  其後果 (Cantonese traditiona) => Konsekvenser (Danish)

         Efterretn (Danish) => De nasleep (Dutch)
         De nasleep (Dutch) => Eftervirkningerne (Danish)

 Eftervirkningerne (Danish) =>
 Eftervirkningerne (Danish) => Folgen (German)
 Eftervirkningerne (Danish) => séquelles (French)
 Eftervirkningerne (Danish) => consecuencia (Spanish)                             
 Eftervirkningerne (Danish) => conseguenze (Italian)
 Eftervirkningerne (Danish) => συνέπεια (Greek)
 Eftervirkningerne (Danish) => последствие (Russian)
 Eftervirkningerne (Danish) => Aftermath (English)

         séquelles (French) =>
         séquelles (French) => اعقاب (Arabic)
                عقاب (Arabic) =>  תוצאות (Hebrew)
                اعقاب (Arabic) => efterdyning (Swedish)

      efterdyning (Swedish) =>
      efterdyning (Swedish) => jälkivaikutus (Finnish)
      efterdyning (Swedish) => Eftervirkningerne (Danish)
      efterdyning (Swedish) => nasleep (Dutch)
      efterdyning (Swedish) => последствие (Russian)
      efterdyning (Swedish) => aftermath (English)
      efterdyning (Swedish) => ina dhiaidh (Irish)
      efterdyning (Swedish) => adladd (Welsh)

             adladd (Welsh) => 
             adladd (Welsh) => hậu quả (Vietnamese)
             adladd (Welsh) => séquelles (French)
             adladd (Welsh) => հետեւանքները (Armenian)
             adladd (Welsh) => sonrakı (Azerbaijani)
             adladd (Welsh) => परिणाम (Hindi)

           Gevolgen (Dutch) => Canlyniadau (Welsh)

           Gevolgen (Dutch) =>
            nasleep (Dutch) =>

           Gevolgen (Dutch) => Canlyniadau (Welsh)
            nasleep (Dutch) => adladd (Welsh)

           Gevolgen (Dutch) => consequences (English)
            nasleep (Dutch) => aftermath (English)

           Gevolgen (Dutch) => Folgen (German)
            nasleep (Dutch) => Folgen (German)

           Gevolgen (Dutch) => Konsekvenser (Danish)
            nasleep (Dutch) => Eftervirkningerne (Danish)

           Gevolgen (Dutch) => efterräkning (SWedish)
            nasleep (Dutch) => efterdyning (SWedish)

           Gevolgen (Dutch) => seuraukset (Finnish)
            nasleep (Dutch) => jälkivaikutus (Finnish)

           Gevolgen (Dutch) => 結果 (Japanese)
            nasleep (Dutch) => 余波 (Japanese)

           Gevolgen (Dutch) => Conséquences (French)
            nasleep (Dutch) => séquelles (French)

           Gevolgen (Dutch) => Conseqüències (Catalan)
            nasleep (Dutch) => Seqüeles (Catalan)

        Canlyniadau (Welsh) => resultat (Swedish)
        Canlyniadau (Welsh) => Niðurstöður (Icelandic)
        Canlyniadau (Welsh) => Ergebnisse (German)

         Ergebnisse (German) =>
             Folgen (German) =>
         Die Folgen (German) =>
seine Nachwirkungen (German) =>

         Ergebnisse (German) => results (English)
             Folgen (German) => follow (English)
         Die Folgen (German) => The consequences (English)
seine Nachwirkungen (German) => its aftermath (English)

         Ergebnisse (German) => 業績 (Japanese)
             Folgen (German) => 従う (Japanese)
         Die Folgen (German) => 結果 (Japanese)
seine Nachwirkungen (German) => その余波 (Japanese)

         Ergebnisse (German) => Результаты (Russian)
             Folgen (German) => следовать (Russian)
         Die Folgen (German) => Последствия (Russian)
seine Nachwirkungen (German) => его последствия (Russian)

         Ergebnisse (German) => 結果 (Chinese traditional)
             Folgen (German) => 跟隨 (Chinese traditional)
         Die Folgen (German) => 後果 (Chinese traditional)
seine Nachwirkungen (German) => 其後果 (Chinese traditional)

         Ergebnisse (German) => risultati (Italian)
             Folgen (German) => seguire (Italian)
         Die Folgen (German) => Le conseguenze (Italian)
seine Nachwirkungen (German) => le sue conseguenze (Italian) 
 

bing.com/translate/

Intelligence Service (ET Efterretnings-Tjenesten)
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesopotamian_Arabic

Secret service sources passed on the information to a team including Danish, Swedish and Norwegian broadcasters (DR, SVT and NRK respectively), as well as the French newspaper Le Monde, German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung and German public broadcasters NDR and WDR.

The Danish government knew of the involvement of their country's secret service in the NSA scandal by 2015 at the latest.

They began to collect information on the FE's cooperation with the NSA between 2012 and 2014 in the secret Dunhammer report following the disclosures by the former NSA employee and whistleblower Edward Snowden, NDR reported.

The information they gathered made it clear that the FE had helped the NSA to spy on leading politicians in Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands and France, as well as Germany.

Danish intelligence also helped the US agency to spy on the Danish foreign and finance ministries as well as a Danish weapons manufacturer. The FE also cooperated with the NSA on spying operations against the US government itself.

Upon discovering exactly how far the cooperation between the two countries' intelligence services went, the Danish government forced the entire leadership of the FE to step down in 2020.

Patrick Sensburg, who led the German parliamentary committee to investigate the NSA spying scandal, was not surprised by the news. For the lawmaker from Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU), it is important to understand what drives secret services.

"It's not about friendships. It's not about moral-ethical aspirations. It's about pursuing interests," he told NDR.
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

30.05.2021
Danish intelligence service helped NSA spy on EU politicians

Danish intelligence service [Danish Defense Intelligence Service (FE)] helped NSA (US surveillance agency) spy on leading politicians in Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands and France, as well as Germany


Danish secret service helped US spy on Germany's Angela Merkel: report | DW |
30.05.2021

Deutsche Welle (www.dw.com)


Denmark's secret service helped the US National Security Agency (NSA) spy on EU leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, a European media investigation published on Sunday revealed.

 ►   https://www.dw.com/en/german-prosecutors-close-case-on-nsa-spying-scandal/a-40814387

The disclosure that the US had been spying on its allies first came to light in 2013, but it is only now that journalists have gained access to reports detailing the support given to the NSA by the Danish Defense Intelligence Service (FE).

The report showed that Germany's close ally and neighbor cooperated with US spying operations that targeted the chancellor and president.

The then chancellor candidate for the German center-left socialist party (SPD), Peer Steinbrück, was also a target, the new report disclosed.

Secret service sources passed on the information to a team including Danish, Swedish and Norwegian broadcasters (DR, SVT and NRK respectively), as well as the French newspaper Le Monde, German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung and German public broadcasters NDR and WDR.


How did German officials react?

Steinbrück spoke to the German members of the research team upon finding out about the spying operations against him.

"Politically, I consider this a scandal," he said. While he accepted that western states require functioning intelligence services, the fact that Danish authorities had been spying on their partners showed "that they are rather doing things on their own."

Neither Merkel nor Steinmeier had "any knowledge" of the spying operations carried out by leading Danish government officials. A spokesperson said that the chancellor had been informed of the revelations.


How was the Danish government involved?

The Danish government knew of the involvement of their country's secret service in the NSA scandal by 2015 at the latest.

They began to collect information on the FE's cooperation with the NSA between 2012 and 2014 in the secret Dunhammer report following the disclosures by the former NSA employee and whistleblower Edward Snowden, NDR reported.

The information they gathered made it clear that the FE had helped the NSA to spy on leading politicians in Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands and France, as well as Germany.

Danish intelligence also helped the US agency to spy on the Danish foreign and finance ministries as well as a Danish weapons manufacturer. The FE also cooperated with the NSA on spying operations against the US government itself.

Upon discovering exactly how far the cooperation between the two countries' intelligence services went, the Danish government forced the entire leadership of the FE to step down in 2020.


What drove Danish spies to help the NSA?

A Danish expert in secret service operations Thomas Wegener Friis believes that the FE was faced with a choice about which global partners to work more closely with.

"They made a clear decision to work with the Americans and against their European partners," he told NDR.

Patrick Sensburg, who led the German parliamentary committee to investigate the NSA spying scandal, was not surprised by the news. For the lawmaker from Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU), it is important to understand what drives secret services.

"It's not about friendships. It's not about moral-ethical aspirations. It's about pursuing interests," he told NDR.

The NSA, FE and Danish defense ministry did not respond to requests for comment on the research, however, a general statement from the defense ministry said that "a systematic bugging of close allies is unacceptable."


source:

https://www.textise.net/showText.aspx?strURL=https://www.dw.com/en/danish-secret-service-helped-us-spy-on-germanys-angela-merkel-report/a-57721901

https://www.dw.com/en/danish-secret-service-helped-us-spy-on-germanys-angela-merkel-report/a-57721901
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

([ the following events are unlikely, we are imagining the unthinkable ])
([ what-if scenario                                                    ])

A Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security
October 2003
by Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall
page count: 22 pages

 ►   https://eesc.columbia.edu/courses/v1003/readings/Pentagon.pdf
 ►   https://www.iatp.org/documents/abrupt-climate-change-scenario-and-its-implications-united-states-national-security
 ►   https://www.iatp.org/sites/default/files/An_Abrupt_Climate_Change_Scenario_and_Its_Impl.pdf

Imagining the Unthinkable

The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable – to push the boundaries of current research on climate change so we may better understand the potential implications on United States national security. 

We have interviewed leading climate change scientists, conducted additional research, and reviewed several iterations of the scenario with these experts. The scientists support thisproject, but caution that the scenario depicted is extreme in two fundamental ways.  First, they suggest the occurrences we outline would most likely happen in a few regions, rather than on globally.  Second, they say the magnitude of the event may be considerably smaller. 

We have created a climate change scenario that although not the most likely, is plausible, and would challenge United States national security in ways that should be considered immediately. 

Executive Summary

There is substantial evidence to indicate that significant global warming will occur during the 21st century.  Because changes have been gradual so far, and are projected to be similarly gradual in the future, the effects of global warming have the potential to be manageable for most nations.  Recent research, however, suggests that there is a possibility that this gradual global warming could lead to a relatively abrupt slowing of the ocean’s thermohaline conveyor, which could lead to harsher winter weather conditions, sharply reduced soil moisture, and more intense winds in certain regions that currently provide a significant fraction of the world’s food production.  With inadequate preparation, the result could be a significant drop in the human carrying capacity of the Earth’s environment.

The research suggests that once temperature rises above some threshold, adverse weather conditions could develop relatively abruptly, with persistent changes in the atmospheric circulation causing drops in some regions of 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit in a single decade.  Paleoclimatic evidence suggests that altered climatic patterns could last for as much as a century, as they did when the ocean conveyor collapsed 8,200 years ago, or, at the extreme, could last as long as 1,000 years as they did during the Younger Dryas, which began about 12,700 years ago.

In this report, as an alternative to the scenarios of gradual climatic warming that are so common, we outline an abrupt climate change scenario patterned after the 100-year event that occurred about 8,200 years ago. This abrupt change scenario is characterized by the following conditions:

   •  Annual average temperatures drop by up to 5 degrees Fahrenheit over Asiaand North America and 6 degrees Fahrenheit in northern Europe

   •  Annual average temperatures increase by up to 4 degrees Fahrenheit in keyareas throughout Australia, South America, and southern Africa.

   •  Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and inthe water resource regions for major population centers in Europe and easternNorth America.

   •  Winter storms and winds intensify, amplifying the impacts of the changes. Western Europe and the North Pacific experience enhanced winds.
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

The day before yesterday: when abrupt climate change came to the Chesapeake Bay
Author:  Michael W. Fincham
March 7, 2014
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/features/day-yesterday-when-abrupt-climate-change-came-chesapeake-bay

IN OCTOBER 2003, A LITTLE-KNOWN THINK TANK in the Department of Defense quietly released a report warning that climate change could happen suddenly—so suddenly it could pose a major threat to our country's national security.

The title of the Pentagon report was a mouthful: An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for United States National Security. Those implications included rising seas, flooded coastal cities, at least one drowned country, droughts, food shortages, failed states, and fortress states. The report was never designed as a scientific prediction. It was a speculative effort by defense strategists to dramatize all the security threats the country would face if the climate suddenly shifted.

Why was the Pentagon suddenly worried about abrupt climate change? Because there was new evidence it had happened before.
  ... ... ....

The Pentagon report on “An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario” was commissioned by Andrew Marshall, long-time director of a think tank called the Office of Net Assessment. Press reports usually called Marshall the “Yoda” of the Pentagon, and Foreign Policy magazine in 2012 called him one of the world’s top global thinkers. Now 92 years old, Marshall is still on the job, and a big part of his job is still the same: thinking about the unthinkable and reporting his thoughts directly to his boss, the Secretary of Defense. In 2003, one of his thoughts was that the country should now take seriously the possibility of abrupt climate change.

He had this thought because he knew that many scientists were finding new evidence it could happen. In 1997, Richard B. Alley, a Penn State geologist, had found evidence in Greenland ice cores that a sudden and mysterious cooling hit the Northern Hemisphere thousands of years ago during an era of global warming.  In 2002, the National Research Council had released a study warning that climate change could occur quickly, within decades, especially if something happened to slow down or shut down the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, a branch of the ocean conveyor belt that, among other missions, carries heat from the tropics up into the North Atlantic. After Marshall read the scientific study, he commissioned his own study and hired Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall, two self-described futurists, to work out a geopolitical scenario.

Hollywood producers were also skimming those science reports, skipping any inconvenient details about the speed of climate change. In 2004 they created their own vivid version of abrupt climate change by releasing a 125-million-dollar movie, The Day After Tomorrow. For geologists, abrupt change usually took several decades, for filmmakers it only took several days. Unleashing the power of digital special effects, they showed New York City succumbing to a new ice age in the space of three weeks, a climate change so abrupt and so devastating it sent the U.S. government decamping to Mexico.

What was the scientific evidence for “abrupt climate change” in the past? The Pentagon modeled its nightmare scenario on a specific episode that struck the planet some 8,200 years ago. The earth was well into our current interglacial era, an age of warming oceans and melting ice sheets, when a major cooldown suddenly arrived. It’s called the 8.2 kiloyear event–or the "8.2 ka" event in scientific shorthand. Evidence for the event came from those ice cores in Greenland: these early estimates suggested that temperatures dropped between 7 and 14 degrees Fahrenheit in less than 20 years. And that drop altered ocean currents, atmospheric circulation, and weather patterns around most of the planet. In geological time scales, that's abrupt.
  ... ... ....

*The Pentagon report’s thought-provoking speculations were based in science, but were still just that: speculations. And some speculations are less plausible than others. According to paleoclimatologist Carrie Morrill, reviewer for this article, the temperature drops and chillier winters that occurred in parts of the Northern Hemisphere during the AMOC slowdown 8,200 years ago are unlikely to be repeated in a modern-day scenario. With global warming due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, what’s more plausible is less warming in affected areas—but not actual cooling.


https://monthlyreview.org/2004/05/01/the-pentagon-and-climate-change/
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/emissions-levels-determine-temperature-rises.html
Metadata
Figure: Emissions Levels Determine Temperature Rises Caption: Different amounts of heat-trapping gases released into the atmosphere by human activities produce different projected increases in Earth’s temperature. In the figure, each line represents a central estimate of global average temperature rise (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for a specific emissions pathway. Shading indicates the range (5th to 95th percentile) of results from a suite of climate models. Projections in 2099 for additional emissions pathways are indicated by the bars to the right of each panel. In all cases, temperatures are expected to rise, although the difference between lower and higher emissions pathways is substantial. (Left) The panel shows the two main scenarios (SRES – Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) used in this report: A2 assumes continued increases in emissions throughout this century, and B1 assumes much slower increases in emissions beginning now and significant emissions reductions beginning around 2050, though not due explicitly to climate change policies. (Right) The panel shows newer analyses, which are results from the most recent generation of climate models (CMIP5) using the most recent emissions pathways (RCPs – Representative Concentration Pathways). Some of these new projections explicitly consider climate policies that would result in emissions reductions, which the SRES set did not.1,2 The newest set includes both lower and higher pathways than did the previous set. The lowest emissions pathway shown here, RCP 2.6, assumes immediate and rapid reductions in emissions and would result in about 2.5°F (1.39°C) of warming in this century. The highest pathway, RCP 8.5, roughly similar to a continuation of the current path of global emissions increases, is projected to lead to more than 8°F (4.45°C) warming by 2100, with a high-end possibility of more than 11°F (6.11°C). (Data from CMIP3, CMIP5, and NOAA NCDC).


source:
 10:16
PBS is an American public broadcast service. Wikipedia
Outlining the urgent risks of global warming for U.S.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhatOlh1v5k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhatOlh1v5k
PBS NewsHour
Published on May 6, 2014
In its most comprehensive report on climate change yet, the White House forecasts the likely negative effects facing each of the eight regions in the U.S., from drought in the Southwest, to stronger storms in the Northeast. The administration is expected to cite the warnings when it lays out new regulations this summer. John Holdren, science advisor to the president, talks to Gwen Ifill.
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

Climate Change and National Security
http://lasp.colorado.edu/~randall/4800/lectures/20160328.pdf

Three case studies:
 ■ 2003: An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for United States National Security (Pentagon)
 ■ 2007: Oil Shockwave Simulation (DoD)
 ■ 2015: Climate Refugees in Syria (Scientific American)
   ____________________________________
   ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀

 Climate Intervention Reports Release Briefing Webcast

Watch the briefing given at the release of two National Research Council reports, Climate Intervention: Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration, and Climate Intervention: Reflecting Sunlight to Cool Earth.

http://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/videos-multimedia/climate-intervention-reports-release-briefing-webcast/
  ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀
 
at No comments:
Subscribe to: Comments (Atom)

Folding Beijing (sci-fi)

 p.238 Folding Beijing: Hao Jing fang tran. Ken Liu, Uncanny magazine,  https://uncannymagazine.com/article/folding-beijing-2/ p.145 Folding...